Bay City

Population 31,868 (2025)

43 tornadoes have tracked within 25 miles of Bay City since 1950, 2 of them rated EF3 or F3 or stronger; the most recent was on May 15, 2025.

Hazard fingerprint for Bay City Tornado: 44th percentile. Tropical: 7th percentile. Wildfire: 0th percentile. Flood: 37th percentile. Hail & wind: 70th percentile. Heat: 62th percentile. Cold: 65th percentile. Winter: 49th percentile. TORTROPFIREFLOODSEVEREHEATCOLDWINTER

Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed

2026
  • Tornado damage paths within 25 miles since 195043
  • Tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles since 1851, wider where stronger1
  • Major flood years since 1978, Bay County4

At a glance

Tornado paths within 25 miles, tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles and wildfire perimeters within 25 miles of the city centre. Storm events, flood insurance claims and disaster declarations are for Bay County. Earthquakes within 50 miles, volcanoes within 100 miles and smoke days are measured from the city centre; river and tide gauges, tsunami and landslide records and the drought index are for Bay County.

Tornadoes since 1950, within 25 mi

43

2 rated F3/EF3 or stronger

Details

Flood insurance claims

515

Bay County

$2.5 million paid since 1979

Details

Tropical cyclones within 100 mi

1

None within 50 miles since 1851

Details

Strongest tornado

F3

June 12, 1984, 48.0 mile path

Federal disaster declarations

14

Most recent: Covid-19 Pandemic, 2020

Details

Record high

111°F

July 13, 1936

Details

Record low

−23°F

February 5, 1918

Details

Snowiest season

87.2in

Winter of 1966-67

Tornadoes

About one every 1.8 years since 1950, 2 of them rated F3/EF3 or stronger.

Strongest

June 12, 1984

F3, 48.0 mile path

500 yards wide.

Most recent

Thursday, May 15, 2025

EF0, 1.6 mile path

Within the past year.

Tornadoes by decade, within 25 miles Doppler radar era² 1950s: 4 4 1960s: 3 3 1970s: 11 11 1980s: 5 5 1990s: 4 4 2000s: 10 10 2010s: 4 4 2020s: 2 2 1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Recorded tornadoes per decade. The 2020s are incomplete.
Tornadoes by month J: 0 F: 0 M: 0 A: 4 M: 7 J: 18 18 J: 5 A: 5 S: 1 O: 2 N: 1 D: 0 JFMAMJJASOND
By month of occurrence, all years.

Every recorded tornado

Tornadoes within 25 miles since 1950
May 15, 2025EF01.625000
Aug 1, 2022EF02.420000
Jul 8, 2016EF02.010000
Jun 22, 2015EF211.325020
Jun 11, 2014EF15.330000
May 31, 2011EF18.420000
Jun 5, 2005F00.52500
Jun 13, 2004F03.010000
May 22, 2004F00.23000
May 22, 2004F02.55000
May 14, 2004F14.012500
Nov 12, 2003F11.510000
Aug 4, 2003F00.22500
Oct 24, 2001F17.010000
Oct 24, 2001F00.13000
Jun 10, 2001F02.915000
Aug 26, 1999F00.12000
May 31, 1999F21.820000
Jul 2, 1997F10.37300
Jun 21, 1996F31.010000
Aug 7, 1984F20.44000
Jun 12, 1984F348.050020
Jul 17, 1982F00.11700
Jun 20, 1982F111.618000
Jun 15, 1982F219.030030
Jun 20, 1979F00.82700
Jun 18, 1976F11.35000
Apr 15, 1976F14.53300
Sep 12, 1974F14.31000
Jul 14, 1974F10.11000
Jul 31, 1973F22.32000
Jun 26, 1973F00.11000
Jun 26, 1973F00.11000
Jun 3, 1973F00.11000
Jun 1, 1973F112.83000
Aug 22, 1972F10.11000
Apr 14, 1967F11.35000
Apr 11, 1965F29.01000
Apr 11, 1965F29.91020
Jun 22, 1957F20.11000
May 12, 1956F23.810000
Jun 5, 1953F25.61000
Jun 26, 1951F10.11000
  1. Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond this area.
  2. Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.

Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.

Hurricanes and tropical storms

1 tropical cyclone passed within 100 miles since 1851, none within 50.

Most recent

September 14, 2008

Ike, Post-tropical

90.7 miles at closest approach.

Every storm within 100 miles

Tropical cyclones within 100 miles
Ike200890.7Post-tropical58Category 4
Connie195560.6Tropical storm44Category 4
Unnamed194118.6Post-tropical52Category 3
Unnamed193239.1Post-tropical48Category 1
Unnamed19238.4Post-tropical40Tropical storm
Unnamed190020.4Post-tropical63Category 4
Unnamed189275.3Post-tropical58Tropical storm
  1. Tropical storms and hurricanes (34 kt or more, still tropical) at closest approach. Post-tropical remnants with gale-force winds are listed but not counted. Direct: track within 50 miles; near: within 100 miles. Distance is measured to the county boundary for counties and to the city centre for cities, using positions interpolated hourly between HURDAT2 fixes.

National Hurricane Center HURDAT2, 1851 to 2025.

Wildfire and smoke

No large wildfire has been mapped within 25 miles since satellite mapping began in 1984.

Smoke overhead

Smokiest year

2023: 79 days

Heavy smoke on 21 days in 2023, the most of any year.

Last 10 years

25.8 days a year

Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.

2025

29 days

Medium or heavy smoke. 40 so far in 2026.

Days with medium or heavy smoke overhead, by year 2011: 7 2012: 8 2013: 8 2014: 14 2015: 12 2016: 2 2017: 12 2018: 19 2019: 13 2020: 14 2021: 44 2022: 11 2023: 79 79 2024: 35 2025: 29 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Days each year on which a satellite-traced plume of medium or heavy smoke covered the city centre, 2011 to 2025.
  1. A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.

NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.

Floods and flood insurance

515 federal flood insurance claims since 1979, with $2.5 million paid.

Flood insurance figures are for Bay County, the county that contains Bay City.

Federal flood insurance claims by year 1979: 5 1981: 6 1983: 123 1984: 8 1985: 5 1986: 205 205 1994: 6 1996: 28 1997: 6 2013: 5 2014: 8 2017: 36 2018: 15 2020: 20 2021: 8 197919862014
Claims per year since 1979. Years with fewer than five claims are not shown.

Most claims in one year

1986: 205 claims

$815,000 paid.

2nd most

1983: 123 claims

$288,000 paid.

3rd most

2017: 36 claims

$365,000 paid.

Claims by ZIP code

Flood insurance claims by ZIP code
48706298$1.3 million
4863467$200,000
4863166$443,000
4865032$189,000
4870826$121,000
4873216$47,000
486115$130,000

Flood events since 1996

  • Flood8
  • Lakeshore Flood7
  • Flash Flood6
  • Heavy Rain1

1 death recorded in flood events since 1996.

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.

River crests

River gauges in Bay County, the county that contains Bay City.

The National Weather Service sets flood stages for 1 gauge here but lists no crests for it.

River gauges

River gauges and their highest listed crests
Saginaw River at Essexville Tidal Gauge583.3——0
  1. Crests are the highest and the recent crests the National Weather Service lists for each river gauge in the county that has a flood stage, not every flood. Flood categories use each gauge's current flood stages; crests from before levees, dams or channel changes may not be comparable. Crests measured on an old datum are left out of the rankings.

NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauge records, retrieved October 30, 2026.

Drought

In severe drought or worse for 96 of 1,581 months since 1895 (6%); the longest spell lasted 20 months.

The drought index is for Bay County, the county that contains Bay City.

96

Months in severe drought or worse since 1895

29

Months in extreme drought

6%

Share of all months, severe or worse

2

Drought reports to the Weather Service since 1996

Lowest reading

April 1931

−5.78, extreme drought

Longest severe spell

20 months

September 1930 to April 1932.

Latest month

September 2026

+0.72, incipient wet spell

Last severe month: May 2021.

Months in severe drought or worse, by year 1895: 2 1896: 0 1897: 0 1898: 0 1899: 0 1900: 0 1901: 0 1902: 0 1903: 0 1904: 0 1905: 0 1906: 0 1907: 0 1908: 3 1909: 0 1910: 0 1911: 0 1912: 0 1913: 0 1914: 2 1915: 5 1916: 0 1917: 0 1918: 0 1919: 0 1920: 0 1921: 0 1922: 0 1923: 0 1924: 0 1925: 0 1926: 0 1927: 0 1928: 0 1929: 0 1930: 4 1931: 12 12 1932: 4 1933: 0 1934: 8 1935: 0 1936: 5 1937: 3 1938: 0 1939: 1 1940: 3 1941: 0 1942: 0 1943: 0 1944: 1 1945: 4 1946: 2 1947: 0 1948: 1 1949: 0 1950: 0 1951: 0 1952: 0 1953: 0 1954: 0 1955: 0 1956: 0 1957: 0 1958: 0 1959: 0 1960: 1 1961: 2 1962: 0 1963: 0 1964: 7 1965: 0 1966: 0 1967: 0 1968: 0 1969: 0 1970: 0 1971: 1 1972: 0 1973: 0 1974: 0 1975: 0 1976: 0 1977: 7 1978: 0 1979: 0 1980: 0 1981: 0 1982: 0 1983: 0 1984: 0 1985: 0 1986: 0 1987: 0 1988: 1 1989: 0 1990: 0 1991: 0 1992: 0 1993: 0 1994: 0 1995: 0 1996: 0 1997: 0 1998: 5 1999: 3 2000: 3 2001: 0 2002: 0 2003: 4 2004: 0 2005: 0 2006: 0 2007: 0 2008: 0 2009: 0 2010: 0 2011: 0 2012: 0 2013: 0 2014: 0 2015: 0 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 2019: 0 2020: 0 2021: 2 2022: 0 2023: 0 2024: 0 2025: 0 18951905191519251935194519551965197519851995200520152025
Months each year with a Palmer index of −3 or lower, 1895 to 2025. Twelve means the whole year.
  1. The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.

NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.

Earthquakes

No earthquake of magnitude 2.5 or more is recorded within 50 miles of the city centre in the USGS catalogue, which begins in 1900.

Severe weather and other events

436 events in the National Weather Service record for Bay County, 389 of them since 1996.

62

Hail reports, 1 inch or larger

11

Hail, 2 inches or larger

133

Damaging gusts, 58 mph+

67

Winter weather events since 1996

13

Heat events since 1996

15

Cold events since 1996

Largest hail

March 15, 2012

3.00 inches

Strongest measured or estimated gust

September 1, 1960

98 mph

More event types since 1996

Other Storm Events types since 1996
Lightning500Oct 4, 2006
Dust storms and dust devils100Jul 1, 2001
Dense fog and smoke100Oct 25, 2000

Costliest events since 1996

  1. Mar 8, 2017High Wind, Bay$7.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    A non thunderstorm event took place over the state on Wednesday, March 8, 2017, as high winds brought wind gusts in excess of 60 mph! The high winds took out power lines and trees, along with numerous reports of structural damage to buildings. There were also reports of brush fires and tractor-trailers flipped over around the area. Due to the extensive damage, many areas were without power for several days. Approximately 800,000 DTE customers and approximately 300,000 Consumers Energy customers were affected. The highest wind gust reported across Southeast Michigan was 68 mph at both Saginaw and Detroit Metro Airport.

  2. Jul 27, 2014Hail$3.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    A powerful upper-level low pressure system dropped southward into the Great Lakes on Sunday July 27, sparking a good deal of severe thunderstorms in the warm, moist, and unstable air in advance of the system. Between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m., severe weather affected nearly all of southeast Michigan. The initial storm that affected portions of Midland and Bay counties from around 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. was a prolific hail producer, with hail up to 3 diameter (greater than baseball size) recorded near Midland. Later, another particularly strong storm moved across Oakland County between around 4:30 and 5:15 pm, dropping hail up to 2.50 diameter (tennis ball size) near the Highland/White Lake…

  3. Jun 22, 2017Flash Flood$3.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    Five to eight inches of rain fell, leading to widespread significant flooding. 145 homes were damaged. 50 roads and bridges damaged or destroyed.

  4. Jun 21, 1996Flash Flood$2.2 million
  5. Jul 27, 2014Hail$2.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    A powerful upper-level low pressure system dropped southward into the Great Lakes on Sunday July 27, sparking a good deal of severe thunderstorms in the warm, moist, and unstable air in advance of the system. Between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m., severe weather affected nearly all of southeast Michigan. The initial storm that affected portions of Midland and Bay counties from around 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. was a prolific hail producer, with hail up to 3 diameter (greater than baseball size) recorded near Midland. Later, another particularly strong storm moved across Oakland County between around 4:30 and 5:15 pm, dropping hail up to 2.50 diameter (tennis ball size) near the Highland/White Lake…

  6. Jul 27, 2014Hail$2.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    A powerful upper-level low pressure system dropped southward into the Great Lakes on Sunday July 27, sparking a good deal of severe thunderstorms in the warm, moist, and unstable air in advance of the system. Between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m., severe weather affected nearly all of southeast Michigan. The initial storm that affected portions of Midland and Bay counties from around 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. was a prolific hail producer, with hail up to 3 diameter (greater than baseball size) recorded near Midland. Later, another particularly strong storm moved across Oakland County between around 4:30 and 5:15 pm, dropping hail up to 2.50 diameter (tennis ball size) near the Highland/White Lake…

  7. Jul 27, 2014Hail$2.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    A powerful upper-level low pressure system dropped southward into the Great Lakes on Sunday July 27, sparking a good deal of severe thunderstorms in the warm, moist, and unstable air in advance of the system. Between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m., severe weather affected nearly all of southeast Michigan. The initial storm that affected portions of Midland and Bay counties from around 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. was a prolific hail producer, with hail up to 3 diameter (greater than baseball size) recorded near Midland. Later, another particularly strong storm moved across Oakland County between around 4:30 and 5:15 pm, dropping hail up to 2.50 diameter (tennis ball size) near the Highland/White Lake…

  8. Apr 15, 2018Lakeshore Flood, Bay$2.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    Lake shore flooding was reported in Bangor Township, with water reaching some homes.

  9. Jul 27, 2014Hail$2.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    A powerful upper-level low pressure system dropped southward into the Great Lakes on Sunday July 27, sparking a good deal of severe thunderstorms in the warm, moist, and unstable air in advance of the system. Between 2 p.m. and 8 p.m., severe weather affected nearly all of southeast Michigan. The initial storm that affected portions of Midland and Bay counties from around 2:15 to 3:15 p.m. was a prolific hail producer, with hail up to 3 diameter (greater than baseball size) recorded near Midland. Later, another particularly strong storm moved across Oakland County between around 4:30 and 5:15 pm, dropping hail up to 2.50 diameter (tennis ball size) near the Highland/White Lake…

  10. May 18, 2020Lakeshore Flood, Bay$2.0 million
    National Weather Service narrative

    The water level at Essexville peaked at 70.60 above LWD at 1542 LST.

  1. Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.

NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.

Weather records

From Saginaw Mbs International Airport, 10.6 miles from the city centre, with records from 1898.

All-time high
111°FJul 13, 1936
All-time low
−23°FFeb 5, 1918
Warmest night
81°FJul 11, 1911
Coldest day
−4°FJan 18, 1994
Wettest day
6.93 inAug 10, 2012
Snowiest day
21.3 inMar 17, 1973
Hottest year
2024mean 51.9°F
Coldest year
1917mean 43.1°F
Wettest year
192843.36 in
Driest year
193417.56 in
Snowiest season
87.2 in1966-67
Average monthly high and low temperature and precipitation, last 30 years, Saginaw Mbs International Airport 32°F 30° 17° 1.8 Jan 33° 18° 1.8 Feb 43° 26° 2.1 Mar 57° 36° 2.9 Apr 69° 48° 3.4 May 79° 58° 3.3 Jun 82° 61° 2.8 Jul 80° 59° 3.6 Aug 74° 52° 2.7 Sep 61° 42° 2.8 Oct 47° 32° 1.9 Nov 35° 23° 1.9 Dec Precipitation, inches
Average daily high and low by month, and average monthly precipitation, over the last 30 years.
Nights at or below freezing per year 1976: 144 1977: 135 1978: 165 1979: 140 1980: 146 1981: 142 1982: 144 1983: 145 1984: 136 1985: 128 1986: 145 1987: 137 1988: 146 1989: 161 1990: 145 1991: 142 1992: 145 1993: 158 1994: 138 1995: 145 1996: 157 1997: 155 1998: 111 1999: 137 2000: 130 2001: 128 2002: 167 167 2003: 150 2004: 137 2005: 143 2006: 131 2007: 134 2008: 143 2009: 140 2010: 136 2011: 133 2012: 125 2013: 148 2014: 143 2015: 120 2016: 122 2017: 122 2018: 152 2019: 135 2020: 139 2021: 135 2022: 141 2023: 125 2024: 109 2025: 145 19761986199620062016
Nights at or below freezing each complete year, last 50 years. Thirty-year average: 136.4.
Snowfall by winter 1976: 18.5 in 1977: 55.6 in 1978: 55.9 in 1979: 27.5 in 1980: 41.4 in 1981: 44.4 in 1982: 23.8 in 1983: 25.4 in 1984: 62.2 in 1985: 50.1 in 1986: 25.0 in 1987: 33.4 in 1988: 45.1 in 1989: 44.4 in 1990: 31.7 in 1991: 44.8 in 1992: 47.7 in 1993: 26.8 in 1994: 28.5 in 1995: 68.4 in 1996: 75.0 in 1997: 39.7 in 1998: 53.7 in 1999: 46.4 in 2000: 67.2 in 2001: 55.7 in 2002: 43.6 in 2003: 50.2 in 2004: 75.4 in 2005: 49.7 in 2006: 29.1 in 2007: 80.0 in 80.0 2008: 78.5 in 2009: 45.6 in 2010: 74.3 in 2011: 44.5 in 2012: 43.5 in 2013: 60.3 in 2014: 38.0 in 2015: 50.0 in 2016: 36.1 in 2017: 41.4 in 2018: 44.0 in 2019: 34.4 in 2020: 32.3 in 2021: 36.3 in 2022: 46.7 in 2023: 32.2 in 2024: 32.3 in 2025: 35.6 in 19761986199620062016
Total snowfall each winter (July to June), last 50 winters.

Median first snow

November 17

Earliest: October 12, 2006

Median last snow

April 7

Latest: May 20, 2002

0 of 115 winters had no measurable snow.

Station Saginaw Mbs International Airport (USW00014845), 662 ft elevation, 10.6 miles from the city centre. Daily records from 1898 to October 27, 2026; 100.0% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.

NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.

Federal disaster declarations

14 since 1953. The most recent: Covid-19 Pandemic, March 27, 2020.

Declarations for Bay County.

Federal disaster declarations
Mar 27, 2020BiologicalCovid-19 PandemicMajor disasterDR-4494-MI
Mar 13, 2020BiologicalCovid-19EmergencyEM-3455-MI
Aug 2, 2017Severe StormSevere Storms and FloodingMajor disasterDR-4326-MI
Sep 7, 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina EvacuationEmergencyEM-3225-MI
Jan 10, 2001SnowstormSnowEmergencyEM-3160-MI
Jun 24, 1998Severe StormSevere StormsMajor disasterDR-1226-MI
Jul 23, 1996Severe StormSevere Storms and FloodingMajor disasterDR-1128-MI
Sep 18, 1986FloodSevere Storms & FloodingMajor disasterDR-774-MI
Sep 18, 1985FloodSevere Storms and FloodingMajor disasterDR-744-MI
Jan 27, 1978SnowstormBlizzards & SnowstormsEmergencyEM-3057-MI
Mar 19, 1976Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Icing & FloodingMajor disasterDR-495-MI
Apr 12, 1973FloodSevere Storms & FloodingMajor disasterDR-371-MI
Dec 1, 1972FloodSevere Storms & FloodingMajor disasterDR-363-MI
Apr 14, 1965TornadoTornadoes & Severe StormsMajor disasterDR-190-MI

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.

Sources and vintage

Every number on this page comes from these public records.

  • Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
  • Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
  • Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
  • Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
  • Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
  • Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
  • Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USW00014845.
  • River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
  • Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
  • Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
  • Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.

Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.