Lake Elmo
Population 14,376 (2025)
108 tornadoes have tracked within 25 miles of Lake Elmo since 1950, 8 of them rated EF3 or F3 or stronger; the most recent was on May 15, 2025.
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths within 25 miles since 1950108
- Wildfire burn scars within 25 miles since 19843
- Major flood years since 1978, Washington County7
At a glance
Tornado paths within 25 miles, tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles and wildfire perimeters within 25 miles of the city centre. Storm events, flood insurance claims and disaster declarations are for Washington County. Earthquakes within 50 miles, volcanoes within 100 miles and smoke days are measured from the city centre; river and tide gauges, tsunami and landslide records and the drought index are for Washington County.
Strongest tornado
F4
May 6, 1965, 17.3 mile path
Tornadoes
About one tornado a year since 1950, 8 of them rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
May 6, 1965
F4, 17.3 mile path
667 yards wide; 6 killed along the whole path.
Most recent
Thursday, May 15, 2025
EF2, 3.9 mile path
Within the past year.
Every recorded tornado
| May 15, 2025 | EF2 | 3.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | EF0 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 29, 2024 | EF0 | 7.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | EF0 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | EF0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | EF0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | EF0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2022 | EF0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| May 11, 2022 | EF0 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 9, 2022 | EF0 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2021 | EF0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2021 | EF0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 28, 2021 | EF1 | 5.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 14, 2020 | EF0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 18, 2020 | EF1 | 9.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 18, 2020 | EF0 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 |
| May 26, 2020 | EF0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 28, 2019 | EF1 | 8.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2017 | EF0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2017 | EF0 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2017 | EF1 | 10.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 2017 | EF0 | 12.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 28, 2017 | EF1 | 11.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 18, 2015 | EF0 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 7, 2014 | EF0 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2013 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2012 | EF0 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2012 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2012 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2012 | EF0 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 21, 2011 | EF0 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 22, 2011 | EF0 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 |
| May 22, 2011 | EF0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 22, 2011 | EF1 | 13.6 | 48 | 1 |
| Aug 13, 2010 | EF1 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Jul 17, 2010 | EF0 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2010 | EF2 | 15.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2010 | EF1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 19, 2009 | EF0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 19, 2009 | EF0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 19, 2009 | EF0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 19, 2009 | EF1 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 19, 2009 | EF0 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 8, 2009 | EF0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 8, 2009 | EF1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 10, 2008 | EF0 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 25, 2008 | EF0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 25, 2008 | EF0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 25, 2008 | EF3 | 6.0 | 17 | 1 |
| May 25, 2008 | EF1 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 20, 2007 | EF0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 23, 2006 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 21, 2005 | F2 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 21, 2005 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 11, 2005 | F1 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 11, 2005 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2003 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 26, 2000 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 7, 2000 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 5, 1999 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| May 15, 1998 | F1 | 13.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 29, 1998 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 1, 1997 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 21, 1996 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 6, 1996 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 6, 1995 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 30, 1994 | F0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 26, 1994 | F2 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jul 7, 1993 | F1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| May 30, 1991 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 30, 1991 | F0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 16, 1990 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 16, 1990 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 27, 1987 | F1 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 23, 1987 | F3 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 6, 1987 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 13, 1987 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 18, 1986 | F2 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 16, 1984 | F1 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 26, 1984 | F3 | 5.5 | 52 | 1 |
| Jul 15, 1982 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 14, 1981 | F3 | 16.2 | 83 | 1 |
| Jun 28, 1979 | F1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 22, 1979 | F2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 6, 1974 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 9, 1973 | F1 | 0.2 | 11 | 1 |
| Jul 14, 1971 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 1971 | F1 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 18, 1970 | F1 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jul 15, 1969 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 15, 1969 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 12, 1967 | F2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 5, 1966 | F2 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 5, 1966 | F1 | 6.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jul 15, 1965 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 1965 | F2 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 6, 1965 | F4 | 17.3 | 158 | 6 |
| May 6, 1965 | F4 | 6.8 | 175 | 3 |
| Jul 28, 1964 | F1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 2, 1963 | F1 | 6.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 9, 1958 | F2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 22, 1958 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 24, 1958 | F3 | 59.4 | 12 | 0 |
| Aug 15, 1954 | F2 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 25, 1954 | F2 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 |
| May 10, 1953 | F2 | 105.7 | 27 | 4 |
| Jun 24, 1952 | F2 | 70.9 | 15 | 0 |
| Jul 20, 1951 | F3 | 11.6 | 40 | 5 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond this area.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
No tropical storm or hurricane has tracked within 100 miles since records began in 1851.
Wildfire and smoke
3 large fires burned within 25 miles since 1984.
Largest
April 6, 2009
Unnamed Fire, 2,899 acres
19.2 miles from the city centre.
Most recent
April 6, 2009
Unnamed Fire
2,899 acres in total.
Every large fire
| Unnamed | 2009 | 19.2 | 2,899 |
| Eagan | 2004 | 16.0 | 926 |
| Unnamed | 1990 | 21.1 | 512 |
- Large fires mapped by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity program since 1984: 1,000 acres or more in the West, 500 or more in the East. Prescribed burns are excluded. Acres here are the part of each perimeter inside this place.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (USGS and U.S. Forest Service), 1984 to 2026.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 82 days
Heavy smoke on 26 days in 2021, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
30.5 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
22 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 44 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
533 federal flood insurance claims since 1978, with $5.4 million paid.
Flood insurance figures are for Washington County, the county that contains Lake Elmo.
Most claims in one year
2001: 142 claims
$2.3 million paid.
2nd most
1997: 101 claims
$957,000 paid.
3rd most
2011: 41 claims
$218,000 paid.
Claims by ZIP code
| 55043 | 165 | $1.3 million |
| 55003 | 160 | $2.1 million |
| 55082 | 47 | $705,000 |
| 55001 | 35 | $373,000 |
| 55042 | 34 | $278,000 |
| 55055 | 22 | $149,000 |
| 55033 | 21 | $201,000 |
| 55047 | 13 | $78,000 |
| 55016 | 9 | $18,000 |
| 55071 | 8 | $126,000 |
| 55128 | 5 | $13,000 |
Flood events since 1996
- Flash Flood8
- Heavy Rain6
- Flood5
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
River crests
River gauges in Washington County, the county that contains Lake Elmo.
Most severe crest
April 18, 1965
St. Croix River at Stillwater, 94.10 ft
7.10 feet above the 87.0 ft flood stage; major flooding by today’s categories.
Most recent moderate or major crest
July 1, 2024
St. Croix River at Stillwater, 88.10 ft
Moderate flooding.
River gauges
| St. Croix River at Stillwater | 87.0 | 94.10 ft | 7 |
- Crests are the highest and the recent crests the National Weather Service lists for each river gauge in the county that has a flood stage, not every flood. Flood categories use each gauge's current flood stages; crests from before levees, dams or channel changes may not be comparable. Crests measured on an old datum are left out of the rankings.
NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauge records, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 115 of 1,581 months since 1895 (7%); the longest spell lasted 21 months.
The drought index is for Washington County, the county that contains Lake Elmo.
115
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
61
Months in extreme drought
7%
Share of all months, severe or worse
Lowest reading
August 1934
−7.40, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
21 months
July 1936 to March 1938.
Latest month
September 2026
−2.73, moderate drought
Last severe month: August 2023.
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes and landslides
No earthquake of magnitude 2.5 or more is recorded within 50 miles of the city centre in the USGS catalogue, which begins in 1900.
Mapped landslides
Landslides mapped in Washington County.
62
Landslides mapped, probable or better
3
With a recorded date
1
Source inventory
Mapped by USGS MN (62).
- Landslides mapped in the USGS compilation of landslide inventories across the United States (version 3.0, 2025), rated probable or better. The compilation joins inventories made by federal and state agencies for different purposes and areas, so the number mapped in a county reflects how closely it has been surveyed as much as how often its slopes fail. An area with few records may simply not have been mapped. Deaths are as recorded in the inventories; a slide listed in two inventories is counted once.
USGS Landslide Inventories across the United States, version 3.0, retrieved October 27, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
594 events in the National Weather Service record for Washington County, 533 of them since 1996.
134
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
14
Hail, 2 inches or larger
132
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
120
Winter weather events since 1996
15
Heat events since 1996
21
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
May 29, 1989
2.75 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
May 19, 1996
98 mph
More event types since 1996
| Lightning | 11 | 1 |
| Dense fog and smoke | 2 | 0 |
Costliest events since 1996
- May 25, 2008Tornado$25.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
The tornado touched down on the eastern side of Lino Lakes, at the eastern shore of Peltier Lake. The tornado felled trees and lifted boat docks, then tracked east and crossed Interstate 35E. As this occurred, a few barns, grain bins, and silos were damaged. The tornado then intensified as it moved into northwestern Washington County and a subdivision (Creekview Preserve), about two miles north of downtown Hugo. It was at this point (around 16:01), that the twister caused EF-3 damage. The tornado dissipated in the eastern portion of Hugo, just north of Irish Avenue and 140th Street. Seven hundred and ninety four homes, including mobile homes, were affected by the storm in some…
- May 30, 1998Thunderstorm Wind$14.0 million
- May 15, 1998Hail$10.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Scattered house and vehicle damage from wind driven hail. Damage estimate for entire county.
- Sep 21, 2005Thunderstorm Wind$5.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Numerous trees and power lines down, including some on vehicles.
- May 19, 1996Hail$1.7 million
National Weather Service narrative
Damage estimate for entire county.
- Aug 26, 2000Thunderstorm Wind$1.5 million
National Weather Service narrative
Wind measured at Lake Elmo Airport. Thirtytwo aircraft damaged, structural damage to several hangars at the Lake Elmo Airport. Estimated damage of one million dollars at the airport, according to the Metropolitan Airports Commission. Forty homes damaged just west of the airport with another 0.5 million damage estimated. Most damage involved dislodged shingles, siding, garage doors damaged. Many large trees in the old village area of Lake Elmo suffered heavy damage, or were blown down. Some corn also flattened. Twenty thousand electrical customers out of power for several hours across Woodbury, Afton, and Lake Elmo.
- Jul 28, 2019Tornado$1.5 million
National Weather Service narrative
An EF1 tornado spun up on the southwest side of Sylvan Lake and continued northeast in a broken path through Bone Lake, and moved into Chisago County on 240th Street North, east of Morgan Avenue. The path length was approximately 4.4 miles across Washington County, with a maximum width of 440 yards. The worst damage occurred on Bone Lake where numerous large trees were uprooted or blown down. Some roof damage was noted, but most of the trees fell away from homes. Other damage along the path was associated with flattened corn, tree damage, a storage shed that had its roof blown off, and damage to a solar panel farm.
- May 1, 2001Hail$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Damage incurred to vehicles, buildings and trailers at a Washington County park.
- Jun 26, 1998Thunderstorm Wind$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Marina damaged. Pier broke lose from shore with 25 boats, some still occupied. Two other piers heavily damaged. Wind damage also reported in Oak Park Heights, Lake Elmo and Oakdale. Large tree limbs and power lines down.
- Jun 25, 1998Thunderstorm Wind$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
40 homes damaged. Some roofs ripped off homes. One house shifted off foundation. Estimated windspeed.
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From St. Paul Dwtn Airport, 8.1 miles from the city centre, with records from 1937.
- All-time high
- 104°F2 times, most recently Aug 10, 1947
- All-time low
- −32°FJan 30, 1951
- Warmest night
- 85°FAug 16, 1937
- Coldest day
- −13°F2 times, most recently Jan 30, 2019
- Wettest day
- 5.57 inMay 29, 1942
- Snowiest day
- 11.9 inMar 22, 1952
- Hottest year
- 2024mean 50.7°F
- Coldest year
- 1950mean 42.0°F
- Wettest year
- 194237.72 in
- Driest year
- 200114.69 in
Station St. Paul Dwtn Airport (USW00014927), 700 ft elevation, 8.1 miles from the city centre. Daily records from 1937 to October 27, 2026; 97.8% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
17 since 1953. The most recent: Covid-19 Pandemic, April 7, 2020.
Declarations for Washington County.
| Apr 7, 2020 | Biological | DR-4531-MN |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3453-MN |
| Jun 12, 2019 | Flood | DR-4442-MN |
| May 10, 2011 | Flood | DR-1982-MN |
| Mar 19, 2010 | Flood | EM-3310-MN |
| Sep 13, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3242-MN |
| May 16, 2001 | Flood | DR-1370-MN |
| Oct 20, 2000 | Fire | FM-2345-MN |
| Jun 23, 1998 | Tornado | DR-1225-MN |
| Apr 8, 1997 | Flood | DR-1175-MN |
| Jun 1, 1996 | Flood | DR-1116-MN |
| Jun 11, 1993 | Severe Storm | DR-993-MN |
| Aug 6, 1987 | Severe Storm | DR-797-MN |
| Jul 8, 1978 | Severe Storm | DR-560-MN |
| Jun 17, 1976 | Drought | EM-3013-MN |
| Apr 18, 1969 | Flood | DR-255-MN |
| Apr 11, 1965 | Flood | DR-188-MN |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USW00014927.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Landslides USGS Landslide Inventories across the United States, version 3.0 (2025).
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.