McMinnville
Population 13,943 (2025)
75 tornadoes have tracked within 25 miles of McMinnville since 1950, 3 of them rated EF3 or F3 or stronger; the most recent was on May 6, 2024.
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths within 25 miles since 195075
- Tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles since 1851, wider where stronger6
- Wildfire burn scars within 25 miles since 198410
At a glance
Tornado paths within 25 miles, tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles and wildfire perimeters within 25 miles of the city centre. Storm events, flood insurance claims and disaster declarations are for Warren County. Earthquakes within 50 miles, volcanoes within 100 miles and smoke days are measured from the city centre; river and tide gauges, tsunami and landslide records and the drought index are for Warren County.
Strongest tornado
F5
April 3, 1974, 83.3 mile path
Strongest tropical cyclone
TS
Tropical storm Frederic, 1979, 23.0 miles away
Tornadoes
About one tornado a year since 1950, 3 of them rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
April 3, 1974
F5, 83.3 mile path
500 yards wide; 16 killed along the whole path.
Most recent
Monday, May 6, 2024
EF1, 3.2 mile path
2 years ago.
Every recorded tornado
| May 6, 2024 | EF1 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | EF2 | 18.4 | 2 | 0 |
| Dec 11, 2021 | EF0 | 8.9 | 0 | 0 |
| May 4, 2021 | EF0 | 4.8 | 0 | 0 |
| May 3, 2021 | EF0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 28, 2020 | EF0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 5, 2020 | EF1 | 3.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 5, 2020 | EF0 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 6, 2018 | EF1 | 15.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 6, 2018 | EF2 | 29.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 6, 2018 | EF1 | 8.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2018 | EF0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 5, 2017 | EF1 | 3.4 | 1 | 0 |
| Nov 29, 2016 | EF1 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 30, 2013 | EF0 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 30, 2013 | EF0 | 6.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 29, 2012 | EF1 | 14.8 | 0 | 1 |
| May 26, 2011 | EF0 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF0 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF1 | 13.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF0 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 23, 2011 | EF2 | 9.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 7, 2009 | EF0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 28, 2009 | EF1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 13, 2009 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 10, 2009 | EF0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 10, 2009 | EF0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 11, 2008 | EF1 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 11, 2008 | EF1 | 15.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 7, 2006 | F1 | 4.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Apr 7, 2006 | F1 | 11.0 | 0 | 2 |
| May 5, 2003 | F1 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 5, 2003 | F1 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2003 | F1 | 3.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2003 | F1 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2002 | F2 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2002 | F2 | 12.3 | 24 | 2 |
| Nov 10, 2002 | F2 | 5.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2002 | F1 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2002 | F2 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 24, 2001 | F2 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 8, 1998 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 7, 1998 | F1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 28, 1997 | F2 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 28, 1997 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 24, 1997 | F2 | 7.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 24, 1997 | F2 | 3.2 | 2 | 0 |
| May 18, 1995 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 18, 1995 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 18, 1995 | F0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 26, 1994 | F2 | 4.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Jun 26, 1994 | F0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 7, 1984 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 6, 1984 | F1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 1983 | F1 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 29, 1983 | F1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jun 24, 1980 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 12, 1975 | F1 | 20.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 3, 1974 | F1 | 7.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Apr 3, 1974 | F2 | 8.7 | 1 | 1 |
| Apr 3, 1974 | F5 | 83.3 | 190 | 16 |
| Apr 3, 1974 | F3 | 14.6 | 23 | 1 |
| Mar 15, 1973 | F2 | 0.1 | 3 | 1 |
| Apr 23, 1968 | F1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Apr 14, 1968 | F1 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 13, 1966 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 17, 1965 | F1 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Mar 17, 1965 | F1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Mar 11, 1963 | F2 | 5.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 13, 1961 | F3 | 9.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 22, 1957 | F2 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 1, 1955 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 20, 1953 | F2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 29, 1952 | F2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 27, 1950 | F1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond this area.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
2 passed within 50 miles since 1851; none at hurricane strength.
Strongest within 50 miles
September 14, 1979
Frederic, Tropical storm
23.0 miles at closest approach, winds near 44 mph.
Most recent
September 27, 2024
Helene, Tropical storm
81.6 miles at closest approach.
Every storm within 100 miles
- Tropical storms and hurricanes (34 kt or more, still tropical) at closest approach. Post-tropical remnants with gale-force winds are listed but not counted. Direct: track within 50 miles; near: within 100 miles. Distance is measured to the county boundary for counties and to the city centre for cities, using positions interpolated hourly between HURDAT2 fixes.
National Hurricane Center HURDAT2, 1851 to 2025.
Wildfire and smoke
10 large fires burned within 25 miles since 1984.
Largest
April 11, 1999
Unnamed Fire, 1,201 acres
20.7 miles from the city centre.
Most recent
April 26, 2009
Lower Ford Rd Fire
1,108 acres in total.
Every large fire
| Lower Ford Rd | 2009 | 16.6 | 1,108 |
| Unnamed | 2004 | 11.3 | 1,237 |
| First Fire | 2003 | 24.7 | 641 |
| Unnamed | 2001 | 24.3 | 701 |
| Unnamed | 2001 | 17.3 | 1,055 |
| Unnamed | 2001 | 23.7 | 1,209 |
| Unnamed | 2001 | 15.8 | 630 |
| Unnamed | 1999 | 20.7 | 1,201 |
| Unnamed | 1999 | 15.0 | 2,636 |
| Unnamed | 1997 | 20.9 | 508 |
- Large fires mapped by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity program since 1984: 1,000 acres or more in the West, 500 or more in the East. Prescribed burns are excluded. Acres here are the part of each perimeter inside this place.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (USGS and U.S. Forest Service), 1984 to 2026.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 47 days
Heavy smoke on 7 days in 2023, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
10.9 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
10 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 30 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
28 federal flood insurance claims since 1980, with $311,000 paid.
Flood insurance figures are for Warren County, the county that contains McMinnville.
Most claims in one year
1990: 7 claims
$126,000 paid.
2nd most
2002: 5 claims
$59,000 paid.
Claims by ZIP code
| 37110 | 26 | $281,000 |
Flood events since 1996
- Flash Flood20
- Flood3
- Heavy Rain1
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 102 of 1,581 months since 1895 (6%); the longest spell lasted 25 months.
The drought index is for Warren County, the county that contains McMinnville.
102
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
35
Months in extreme drought
6%
Share of all months, severe or worse
41
Drought reports to the Weather Service since 1996
Lowest reading
January 2008
−5.47, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
25 months
March 2007 to March 2009.
Latest month
September 2026
−2.07, moderate drought
Last severe month: June 2012.
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes
25 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more within 50 miles since 1902; none reached magnitude 4.
4
Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973
0
Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900
0
Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900
Largest within 50 miles
June 19, 2007
Magnitude 3.5
10 km ENE of Spencer, Tennessee; 24.6 miles away, 0.7 miles deep.
Most recent, magnitude 3 or more
May 10, 2020
Magnitude 3.1
7 km SSE of Sewanee, Tennessee; 38.2 miles away.
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the city centre.
- Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).
USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
391 events in the National Weather Service record for Warren County, 347 of them since 1996.
26
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
0
Hail, 2 inches or larger
134
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
74
Winter weather events since 1996
0
Heat events since 1996
2
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
May 6, 1984
1.75 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
May 2, 2002
104 mph
More event types since 1996
| Lightning | 1 | 0 |
Costliest events since 1996
- Feb 20, 2015Winter Storm, Warren$2.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Snow and sleet accumulations up to 1.0 fell during the late afternoon on February 20, followed by freezing rain with ice accumulations ranging from 0.25 in western parts of Warren County up to 0.75 in eastern areas from the evening on February 20 into the early morning hours on February 21. A CoCoRaHS observer 8.5 miles ESE of McMinnville measured 1.0 of snow and sleet, and another CoCoRaHS observer 1.9 miles SSW of Morrison measured 1.0 of snow and sleet. Scattered trees and power lines were knocked down across the county. Warren County was declared a Presidential disaster area on April 2, 2015.
- Dec 24, 1998Winter Storm, Warren$1.5 million
National Weather Service narrative
Widespread trees and power lines down. Caney Fork Electric estimated it cost 1.5 million dollars to restore downed utility poles and power lines. Most of the cost was for labor especially over the Christmas holiday. The damage was worst than the February Ice Storm of 1994 by three fold.
- Apr 11, 2008Tornado$1.1 million
National Weather Service narrative
The tornado damaged dozens of homes, including a few with major damage. The tornado demolished at least 2 barns. Trees were snapped and uprooted.||A newspaper article stated that 3 homes were completely destroyed, 5 homes were severely damaged, and 50 to 60 homes had some damage.
- Feb 20, 2019Flash Flood$541,000
National Weather Service narrative
Warren County 911 Center reported numerous roads were flooded and closed across the county, including Barry Knight Road at Charles Creek, the 700 block of Brown|Prater Road, Wheeler Road, Dark Hollow Road, Robert Wilson Road, Old Morrison Road at Pepper Branch Road. A water rescue of people from a horse-carriage was conducted at the flooded intersection of Ivy Bluff Trail at Pettigap Road.
- May 8, 2024Thunderstorm Wind$500,000
National Weather Service narrative
A NWS storm survey team found more straight line wind damage in Morrison with estimated peak winds of 80 mph. Numerous trees in and around Morrison were snapped or uprooted. Structural damage was found as well with barns and other outbuildings suffering roofing damage. Damages are a rough estimate.
- Apr 7, 2006Tornado$500,000
National Weather Service narrative
F1 tornado killed 2 people in a mobile home on Foster Rd. A 53 year-old woman was caring for an eldery male friend who also died in the mobile home. He was 81 years-old. She worked at the Federal Mogul plant in Smithville.Shingles were off roofs. Large trees were snapped, uprooted, or blown down. This tornado touched down on Lance Road, near Blue Hill Road. There was damage to a large barn, and shingles were torn off a portion of the roof. The tornado continued along a path due east where it crossed Highway 56 and Highway 287. Damage was noted on this path.
- Mar 3, 2023High Wind, Warren$300,000
National Weather Service narrative
The strongest wind gust recorded in Warren County was 58 mph at an AWOS station at the McMinnville Airport. Several hours of severe non-thunderstorm winds led to numerous reports of downed and uprooted trees, downed powerlines, and roof and property damage across all of Warren County. Damages are estimated.
- Jan 24, 2002Flash Flood$250,000
National Weather Service narrative
911 center reported several roads still closed. Streams and creeks were out of their banks. 10 homes, 2 trailers and 3 utilities were damaged. 12 bridges and 20 roads were closed. 15 people had to be evacuated. Damage estimate was $250,000.
- Apr 20, 1996Thunderstorm Wind$250,000
National Weather Service narrative
The thunderstorms tracked mainly across southern Warren county from Morrision to Harrison Ferry Mountain. Law enforcement reported trees and telephone poles down. Many barns, sheds and out buildings were destroyed. Several homes had minor to major roof damage. The hardest hit area in the county was from Viola to Irving College. There was some damage around the Green Hill area in the northern part of the county. Newspaper article estimate of damage for Warren county was placed at around 1/4 million dollars.
- Mar 18, 2002Flash Flood$201,000
National Weather Service narrative
911 center reported several roads closed due to high water. EMA director estimated damage to roads at $201K.
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From Mcminnville, 1 miles from the city centre, with records from 1894.
- All-time high
- 106°F7 times, most recently Jul 1, 2012
- All-time low
- −26°FFeb 13, 1899
- Warmest night
- 80°F2 times, most recently Aug 15, 1916
- Coldest day
- 7°FFeb 8, 1895
- Wettest day
- 7.37 inJul 3, 1936
- Snowiest day
- 10.0 in2 times, most recently Jan 20, 1918
- Hottest year
- 2012mean 62.1°F
- Coldest year
- 1976mean 56.4°F
- Wettest year
- 202072.20 in
- Driest year
- 200731.95 in
- Snowiest season
- 20.5 in1995-96
Median first snow
January 2
Earliest: November 2, 1966
Median last snow
February 25
Latest: April 12, 1940
7 of 77 winters had no measurable snow.
Station Mcminnville (USC00405882), 940 ft elevation, 1.0 miles from the city centre. Daily records from 1894 to September 30, 2026; 99.1% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
22 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm, February 6, 2026.
Declarations for Warren County.
| Feb 6, 2026 | Winter Storm | DR-4898-TN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Winter Storm | EM-3635-TN |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Severe Storm | EM-3625-TN |
| Jun 17, 2024 | Severe Storm | DR-4792-TN |
| Apr 2, 2020 | Biological | DR-4514-TN |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3473-TN |
| Apr 17, 2019 | Flood | DR-4427-TN |
| Apr 2, 2015 | Severe Ice Storm | DR-4211-TN |
| Apr 5, 2006 | Severe Storm | DR-1634-TN |
| Sep 5, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3217-TN |
| May 8, 2003 | Severe Storm | DR-1464-TN |
| Nov 13, 2002 | Severe Storm | DR-1441-TN |
| Apr 5, 2002 | Severe Storm | DR-1408-TN |
| Jan 19, 1999 | Severe Storm | DR-1262-TN |
| Jan 15, 1999 | Severe Storm | DR-1260-TN |
| Jan 13, 1998 | Severe Storm | DR-1197-TN |
| Feb 28, 1994 | Severe Storm | DR-1010-TN |
| Mar 14, 1993 | Snowstorm | EM-3095-TN |
| Jan 4, 1991 | Flood | DR-889-TN |
| Apr 4, 1974 | Tornado | DR-424-TN |
| Jun 28, 1973 | Flood | DR-395-TN |
| Mar 21, 1973 | Flood | DR-366-TN |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USC00405882.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.