Toole County
Population 5,211 (2025) 1,915 sq mi
Toole County has recorded 7 tornadoes since 1950, 24th most of 56 counties in Montana; the most recent was on June 6, 1994.
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths since 19507
At a glance
The record for Toole County in eight numbers. Each links to its section below.
Strongest tornado
F2
May 7, 1982, 0.5 mile path
Snowiest season
68.2in
Winter of 2008-09
Tornadoes
About one every 11 years since 1950, none rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
May 7, 1982
F2, 0.5 mile path
20 yards wide.
Most recent
Monday, June 6, 1994
F0, 0.1 mile path
32 years ago.
Every recorded tornado
| Jun 6, 1994 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 21, 1993 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 29, 1991 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 7, 1982 | F2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| May 7, 1982 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 2, 1981 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 2, 1981 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond the county. Deaths recorded within Toole County: 0.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
No tropical storm or hurricane has tracked within 100 miles since records began in 1851.
Wildfire and smoke
No large wildfire has been mapped here since satellite mapping began in 1984.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 56 days
Heavy smoke on 31 days in 2021, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
29.5 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
21 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 41 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
1 federal flood insurance claims since 1982, with $416 paid.
Flood events since 1996
- Flash Flood5
- Heavy Rain5
- Flood2
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
River crests
Most severe crest
June 9, 1964
Marias River near Shelby, 23.64 ft
14.64 feet above the 9.0 ft flood stage; major flooding by today’s categories.
Most recent moderate or major crest
January 27, 2011
Marias River near Shelby, 13.96 ft
Moderate flooding.
| Jun 9, 1964 | Marias River near Shelby | 23.64 | +14.64 |
| Jun 20, 1975 | Marias River near Shelby | 18.21 | +9.21 |
| Jun 18, 1948 | Marias River near Shelby | 17.75 | +8.75 |
| Mar 12, 1996 | Marias River near Shelby | 16.05 | +7.05 |
| Jan 27, 2011 | Marias River near Shelby | 13.96 | +4.96 |
| Jun 5, 1953 | Marias River near Shelby | 12.77 | +3.77 |
| Feb 25, 1986 | Marias River near Shelby | 12.58 | +3.58 |
| Feb 24, 1998 | Marias River near Shelby | 12.58 | +3.58 |
| Jun 11, 2002 | Marias River near Shelby | 12.30 | +3.30 |
| Jun 10, 2011 | Marias River near Shelby | 12.11 | +3.11 |
| Mar 10, 2014 | Marias River near Shelby | 11.72 | +2.72 |
| Jun 8, 1995 | Marias River near Shelby | 11.57 | +2.57 |
| Mar 13, 1972 | Marias River near Shelby | 11.57 | +2.57 |
| Mar 18, 1969 | Marias River near Shelby | 11.12 | +2.12 |
| May 26, 2008 | Marias River near Shelby | 11.03 | +2.03 |
| Feb 6, 1962 | Marias River near Shelby | 10.74 | +1.74 |
| Jun 19, 2014 | Marias River near Shelby | 10.61 | +1.61 |
| Feb 28, 1957 | Marias River near Shelby | 10.58 | +1.58 |
| Jun 21, 2018 | Marias River near Shelby | 9.96 | +0.96 |
| Jun 25, 1951 | Marias River near Shelby | 9.72 | +0.72 |
| Jun 22, 1991 | Marias River near Shelby | 9.25 | +0.25 |
| Mar 20, 1997 | Marias River near Shelby | 9.14 | +0.14 |
| Jun 14, 1950 | Marias River near Shelby | 9.11 | +0.11 |
| Mar 27, 1952 | Marias River near Shelby | 8.98 | −0.02 |
| Jan 18, 1976 | Marias River near Shelby | 8.93 | −0.07 |
River gauges
| Marias River near Shelby | 9.0 | 23.64 ft | 4 |
- Crests are the highest and the recent crests the National Weather Service lists for each river gauge in the county that has a flood stage, not every flood. Flood categories use each gauge's current flood stages; crests from before levees, dams or channel changes may not be comparable. Crests measured on an old datum are left out of the rankings.
NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauge records, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 115 of 1,581 months since 1895 (7%); the longest spell lasted 23 months.
115
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
44
Months in extreme drought
7%
Share of all months, severe or worse
Lowest reading
August 1988
−5.76, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
23 months
April 1962 to February 1964.
Latest month
September 2026
+1.98, slightly wet
Last severe month: May 2026.
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes
1 earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles since 1900; the largest was magnitude 4.2 in 2026.
4
Magnitude 2.5+ inside the county since 1973
33
Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973
1
Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900
0
Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900
Largest within 50 miles
January 29, 2026
Magnitude 4.2
9 km N of Black Eagle, Montana; 42.1 miles away, 14.6 miles deep.
Most recent, magnitude 3 or more
September 18, 2026
Magnitude 3.7
7 km NNW of Black Eagle, Montana; 44.2 miles away.
Every earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles
| Jan 29, 2026 | 4.2 | 42.1 |
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the county boundary (or inside the county).
- Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).
USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
665 events in the National Weather Service record, 632 of them since 1996.
44
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
3
Hail, 2 inches or larger
62
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
52
Winter weather events since 1996
0
Heat events since 1996
43
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
August 6, 1967
2.75 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
June 15, 1995
124 mph
Costliest events since 1996
- Jun 8, 2000Thunderstorm Wind$15,000
National Weather Service narrative
1.5 inch hail...gust to 60kt...roof/siding damage to homes...wind damage to shed.
- Jul 4, 1998Flash Flood$10,000
- May 19, 2001High Wind, Toole$7,000
National Weather Service narrative
Sweetgrass Port-of-Entry (US Customs)...Winds caused dust storm with near zero visibility which caused a 5 car accident on Interstate Highway 15...Damage total includes automobile damage and injuries.
- Jun 8, 2000Thunderstorm Wind$2,000
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From Shelby, 4.5 miles from the county’s population centre, with records from 1950.
- All-time high
- 103°FAug 11, 2018
- All-time low
- −44°F2 times, most recently Jan 25, 1957
- Warmest night
- 73°FJun 15, 2021
- Coldest day
- −25°FJan 13, 2024
- Wettest day
- 2.46 inAug 9, 2021
- Snowiest day
- 12.0 in2 times, most recently Apr 29, 2009
- Hottest year
- 1999mean 45.7°F
- Coldest year
- 1951mean 36.8°F
- Wettest year
- 195317.82 in
- Driest year
- 19526.82 in
- Snowiest season
- 68.2 in2008-09
Median first snow
November 14
Earliest: September 28, 1954
Median last snow
April 19
Latest: June 6, 2009
0 of 34 winters had no measurable snow.
Station Shelby (USC00247500), 3,325 ft elevation, 4.5 miles from the population centre. Daily records from 1950 to October 26, 2026; 93.1% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
12 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, July 18, 2024.
| Jul 18, 2024 | Severe Storm | DR-4801-MT |
| Mar 31, 2020 | Biological | DR-4508-MT |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3476-MT |
| Aug 30, 2018 | Flood | DR-4388-MT |
| May 24, 2016 | Severe Storm | DR-4271-MT |
| Jun 17, 2011 | Severe Storm | DR-1996-MT |
| Sep 13, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3253-MT |
| Jul 3, 2002 | Severe Storm | DR-1424-MT |
| Aug 30, 2000 | Fire | DR-1340-MT |
| May 16, 1996 | Severe Storm | DR-1113-MT |
| Mar 15, 1986 | Flood | DR-761-MT |
| Jun 28, 1975 | Flood | DR-472-MT |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
How this compares
Where Toole County stands among 56 counties in Montana and 3,143 in the United States.
| Tornadoes since 1950 | 7 | 24 / 56 |
| Tornadoes rated F3/EF3 or stronger | 0 | — |
| Tropical cyclones within 50 mi | 0 | — |
| Hurricane-strength passes within 50 mi | 0 | — |
| Wildfire acres since 1984 | 0 | — |
| Flood insurance claims | 1 | 44 / 56 |
| Flood insurance paid | $416 | 44 / 56 |
| Disaster declarations | 12 | 19 / 56 |
| Flood events since 1996 | 12 | 47 / 56 |
| Hail and wind events since 1996 | 524 | 13 / 56 |
| Winter storm events since 1996 | 52 | 53 / 56 |
| Reported damage since 1996 | $34,000 | 54 / 56 |
| River crests at major flood stage | 4 | 9 / 56 |
| High tide flooding days a year, last 10 years | 0.0 | — |
| Months in severe drought since 1895 | 115 | 43 / 56 |
| Medium or heavy smoke days a year, last 10 years | 29.5 | 24 / 56 |
| Earthquakes M4+ within 50 mi since 1900 | 1 | 37 / 56 |
| Earthquakes M2.5+ in the county since 1973 | 4 | 20 / 56 |
Neighbouring counties
| Glacier County | 3 | 0 |
| Liberty County | 4 | 0 |
| Pondera County | 0 | 0 |
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USC00247500.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.