Toole County

Population 5,211 (2025) 1,915 sq mi

Toole County has recorded 7 tornadoes since 1950, 24th most of 56 counties in Montana; the most recent was on June 6, 1994.

Hazard fingerprint for Toole County Tornado: 9th percentile. Tropical: 0th percentile. Wildfire: 0th percentile. Flood: 4th percentile. Hail & wind: 27th percentile. Heat: 0th percentile. Cold: 89th percentile. Winter: 38th percentile. TORTROPFIREFLOODSEVEREHEATCOLDWINTER

Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed

2026
  • Tornado damage paths since 19507

At a glance

The record for Toole County in eight numbers. Each links to its section below.

Tornadoes since 1950

7

24th of 56 in Montana

About as many as the typical Montana county

Details

Flood insurance claims

1

44th of 56 in Montana

$416 paid since 1982

Details

Strongest tornado

F2

May 7, 1982, 0.5 mile path

Federal disaster declarations

12

Most recent: Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, 2024

Details

Record high

103°F

August 11, 2018

Details

Record low

−44°F

Reached 2 times, most recently January 25, 1957

Details

Snowiest season

68.2in

Winter of 2008-09

Costliest event since 1996

$15K

Thunderstorm Wind, June 8, 2000

Details

Tornadoes

About one every 11 years since 1950, none rated F3/EF3 or stronger.

Strongest

May 7, 1982

F2, 0.5 mile path

20 yards wide.

Most recent

Monday, June 6, 1994

F0, 0.1 mile path

32 years ago.

Tornadoes by decade Doppler radar era² 1950s: 0 1960s: 0 1970s: 0 1980s: 4 4 1990s: 3 3 2000s: 0 2010s: 0 2020s: 0 1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s2020s
Recorded tornadoes per decade. The 2020s are incomplete.
Tornadoes by month J: 0 F: 0 M: 0 A: 0 M: 2 J: 3 3 J: 0 A: 2 S: 0 O: 0 N: 0 D: 0 JFMAMJJASOND
By month of occurrence, all years.

Every recorded tornado

Tornadoes in Toole County since 1950
Jun 6, 1994F00.11000
Jun 21, 1993F00.11000
Jun 29, 1991F00.21000
May 7, 1982F20.52000
May 7, 1982F00.11000
Aug 2, 1981F00.11000
Aug 2, 1981F00.11000
  1. Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond the county. Deaths recorded within Toole County: 0.
  2. Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.

Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.

Hurricanes and tropical storms

No tropical storm or hurricane has tracked within 100 miles since records began in 1851.

Wildfire and smoke

No large wildfire has been mapped here since satellite mapping began in 1984.

Smoke overhead

Smokiest year

2023: 56 days

Heavy smoke on 31 days in 2021, the most of any year.

Last 10 years

29.5 days a year

Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.

2025

21 days

Medium or heavy smoke. 41 so far in 2026.

Days with medium or heavy smoke overhead, by year 2011: 8 2012: 15 2013: 16 2014: 19 2015: 30 2016: 1 2017: 32 2018: 37 2019: 12 2020: 23 2021: 50 2022: 17 2023: 56 56 2024: 46 2025: 21 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
Days each year on which a satellite-traced plume of medium or heavy smoke covered the county’s population centre, 2011 to 2025.
  1. A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.

NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.

Floods and flood insurance

1 federal flood insurance claims since 1982, with $416 paid.

Federal flood insurance claims by year
Claims per year since 1982. Years with fewer than five claims are not shown.

Flood events since 1996

  • Flash Flood5
  • Heavy Rain5
  • Flood2

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.

River crests

Most severe crest

June 9, 1964

Marias River near Shelby, 23.64 ft

14.64 feet above the 9.0 ft flood stage; major flooding by today’s categories.

Most recent moderate or major crest

January 27, 2011

Marias River near Shelby, 13.96 ft

Moderate flooding.

Highest river crests above flood stage
Jun 9, 1964Marias River near Shelby23.64+14.64Major
Jun 20, 1975Marias River near Shelby18.21+9.21Major
Jun 18, 1948Marias River near Shelby17.75+8.75Major
Mar 12, 1996Marias River near Shelby16.05+7.05Major
Jan 27, 2011Marias River near Shelby13.96+4.96Moderate
Jun 5, 1953Marias River near Shelby12.77+3.77Minor
Feb 25, 1986Marias River near Shelby12.58+3.58Minor
Feb 24, 1998Marias River near Shelby12.58+3.58Minor
Jun 11, 2002Marias River near Shelby12.30+3.30Minor
Jun 10, 2011Marias River near Shelby12.11+3.11Minor
Mar 10, 2014Marias River near Shelby11.72+2.72Minor
Jun 8, 1995Marias River near Shelby11.57+2.57Minor
Mar 13, 1972Marias River near Shelby11.57+2.57Minor
Mar 18, 1969Marias River near Shelby11.12+2.12Minor
May 26, 2008Marias River near Shelby11.03+2.03Minor
Feb 6, 1962Marias River near Shelby10.74+1.74Minor
Jun 19, 2014Marias River near Shelby10.61+1.61Minor
Feb 28, 1957Marias River near Shelby10.58+1.58Minor
Jun 21, 2018Marias River near Shelby9.96+0.96Minor
Jun 25, 1951Marias River near Shelby9.72+0.72Minor
Jun 22, 1991Marias River near Shelby9.25+0.25Minor
Mar 20, 1997Marias River near Shelby9.14+0.14Minor
Jun 14, 1950Marias River near Shelby9.11+0.11Minor
Mar 27, 1952Marias River near Shelby8.98−0.02Action
Jan 18, 1976Marias River near Shelby8.93−0.07Action

River gauges

River gauges and their highest listed crests
Marias River near Shelby9.023.64 ftJun 9, 19644
  1. Crests are the highest and the recent crests the National Weather Service lists for each river gauge in the county that has a flood stage, not every flood. Flood categories use each gauge's current flood stages; crests from before levees, dams or channel changes may not be comparable. Crests measured on an old datum are left out of the rankings.

NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauge records, retrieved October 30, 2026.

Drought

In severe drought or worse for 115 of 1,581 months since 1895 (7%); the longest spell lasted 23 months.

115

Months in severe drought or worse since 1895

44

Months in extreme drought

7%

Share of all months, severe or worse

Lowest reading

August 1988

−5.76, extreme drought

Longest severe spell

23 months

April 1962 to February 1964.

Latest month

September 2026

+1.98, slightly wet

Last severe month: May 2026.

Months in severe drought or worse, by year 1895: 0 1896: 0 1897: 0 1898: 0 1899: 0 1900: 0 1901: 0 1902: 0 1903: 0 1904: 5 1905: 3 1906: 0 1907: 0 1908: 0 1909: 0 1910: 8 1911: 1 1912: 0 1913: 0 1914: 1 1915: 0 1916: 0 1917: 0 1918: 1 1919: 5 1920: 0 1921: 0 1922: 0 1923: 0 1924: 0 1925: 0 1926: 0 1927: 0 1928: 0 1929: 0 1930: 0 1931: 0 1932: 0 1933: 0 1934: 0 1935: 0 1936: 1 1937: 0 1938: 0 1939: 0 1940: 0 1941: 0 1942: 0 1943: 0 1944: 3 1945: 0 1946: 0 1947: 0 1948: 0 1949: 1 1950: 0 1951: 0 1952: 0 1953: 0 1954: 0 1955: 0 1956: 0 1957: 1 1958: 0 1959: 0 1960: 0 1961: 5 1962: 9 1963: 12 12 1964: 2 1965: 0 1966: 0 1967: 0 1968: 0 1969: 2 1970: 0 1971: 0 1972: 0 1973: 6 1974: 5 1975: 0 1976: 0 1977: 2 1978: 0 1979: 0 1980: 0 1981: 0 1982: 0 1983: 0 1984: 3 1985: 2 1986: 0 1987: 0 1988: 4 1989: 0 1990: 0 1991: 0 1992: 2 1993: 0 1994: 1 1995: 0 1996: 0 1997: 0 1998: 2 1999: 0 2000: 7 2001: 12 2002: 2 2003: 0 2004: 2 2005: 0 2006: 0 2007: 1 2008: 0 2009: 0 2010: 0 2011: 0 2012: 0 2013: 0 2014: 0 2015: 1 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 2019: 0 2020: 0 2021: 0 2022: 2 2023: 0 2024: 0 2025: 0 18951905191519251935194519551965197519851995200520152025
Months each year with a Palmer index of −3 or lower, 1895 to 2025. Twelve means the whole year.
  1. The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.

NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.

Earthquakes

1 earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles since 1900; the largest was magnitude 4.2 in 2026.

4

Magnitude 2.5+ inside the county since 1973

33

Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973

1

Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900

0

Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900

Largest within 50 miles

January 29, 2026

Magnitude 4.2

9 km N of Black Eagle, Montana; 42.1 miles away, 14.6 miles deep.

Most recent, magnitude 3 or more

September 18, 2026

Magnitude 3.7

7 km NNW of Black Eagle, Montana; 44.2 miles away.

Earthquakes of magnitude 3 or more within 50 miles, by year 1973: 0 1974: 0 1975: 0 1976: 0 1977: 0 1978: 1 1979: 2 1980: 1 1981: 0 1982: 0 1983: 1 1984: 0 1985: 0 1986: 0 1987: 0 1988: 0 1989: 1 1990: 1 1991: 1 1992: 2 1993: 2 1994: 1 1995: 1 1996: 1 1997: 1 1998: 0 1999: 0 2000: 0 2001: 0 2002: 1 2003: 2 2004: 0 2005: 1 2006: 1 2007: 0 2008: 1 2009: 3 3 2010: 0 2011: 0 2012: 0 2013: 0 2014: 2 2015: 0 2016: 0 2017: 1 2018: 1 2019: 0 2020: 0 2021: 0 2022: 0 2023: 0 2024: 0 2025: 0 19731978198319881993199820032008201320182023
Per year, 1973 to 2025.

Every earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles

Earthquakes of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles
Jan 29, 20264.242.114.69 km N of Black Eagle, Montana
  1. Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the county boundary (or inside the county).
  2. Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).

USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.

Severe weather and other events

665 events in the National Weather Service record, 632 of them since 1996.

44

Hail reports, 1 inch or larger

3

Hail, 2 inches or larger

62

Damaging gusts, 58 mph+

52

Winter weather events since 1996

0

Heat events since 1996

43

Cold events since 1996

Largest hail

August 6, 1967

2.75 inches

Strongest measured or estimated gust

June 15, 1995

124 mph

Costliest events since 1996

  1. Jun 8, 2000Thunderstorm Wind$15,000
    National Weather Service narrative

    1.5 inch hail...gust to 60kt...roof/siding damage to homes...wind damage to shed.

  2. Jul 4, 1998Flash Flood$10,000
  3. May 19, 2001High Wind, Toole$7,000
    National Weather Service narrative

    Sweetgrass Port-of-Entry (US Customs)...Winds caused dust storm with near zero visibility which caused a 5 car accident on Interstate Highway 15...Damage total includes automobile damage and injuries.

  4. Jun 8, 2000Thunderstorm Wind$2,000
  1. Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.

NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.

Weather records

From Shelby, 4.5 miles from the county’s population centre, with records from 1950.

All-time high
103°FAug 11, 2018
All-time low
−44°F2 times, most recently Jan 25, 1957
Warmest night
73°FJun 15, 2021
Coldest day
−25°FJan 13, 2024
Wettest day
2.46 inAug 9, 2021
Snowiest day
12.0 in2 times, most recently Apr 29, 2009
Hottest year
1999mean 45.7°F
Coldest year
1951mean 36.8°F
Wettest year
195317.82 in
Driest year
19526.82 in
Snowiest season
68.2 in2008-09
Average monthly high and low temperature and precipitation, last 30 years, Shelby 32°F 33° 9° 0.5 Jan 36° 11° 0.5 Feb 44° 19° 0.6 Mar 55° 29° 1.2 Apr 65° 39° 1.8 May 73° 47° 2.6 Jun 84° 53° 0.9 Jul 83° 51° 1.0 Aug 73° 42° 1.1 Sep 58° 30° 0.8 Oct 44° 20° 0.6 Nov 34° 11° 0.5 Dec Precipitation, inches
Average daily high and low by month, and average monthly precipitation, over the last 30 years.
Nights at or below freezing per year 1997: 181 1998: 183 1999: 190 2009: 208 208 2010: 194 2011: 193 2012: 190 2013: 198 2014: 196 2015: 184 2016: 181 2017: 182 2018: 204 2019: 191 2020: 172 2021: 172 2022: 165 2023: 172 2024: 173 2025: 168 19972016
Nights at or below freezing each complete year, last 50 years. Thirty-year average: 184.8.
Snowfall by winter 1996: 15.0 in 1997: 2.9 in 1998: 9.5 in 1999: 15.7 in 2000: 7.2 in 2001: 29.0 in 2002: 31.9 in 2003: 36.3 in 2004: 14.9 in 2005: 26.9 in 2006: 47.4 in 2007: 23.4 in 2008: 68.2 in 68.2 2009: 31.3 in 2010: 43.8 in 2011: 14.5 in 2012: 43.6 in 2013: 46.4 in 2014: 22.3 in 2015: 18.6 in 2016: 40.3 in 2017: 62.9 in 2018: 39.1 in 2019: 59.8 in 2020: 45.7 in 2021: 17.7 in 2022: 40.7 in 2023: 21.0 in 2024: 27.1 in 2025: 19.9 in 199620062016
Total snowfall each winter (July to June), last 50 winters.

Median first snow

November 14

Earliest: September 28, 1954

Median last snow

April 19

Latest: June 6, 2009

0 of 34 winters had no measurable snow.

Station Shelby (USC00247500), 3,325 ft elevation, 4.5 miles from the population centre. Daily records from 1950 to October 26, 2026; 93.1% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.

NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.

Federal disaster declarations

12 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, July 18, 2024.

Federal disaster declarations
Jul 18, 2024Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and FloodingMajor disasterDR-4801-MT
Mar 31, 2020BiologicalCovid-19 PandemicMajor disasterDR-4508-MT
Mar 13, 2020BiologicalCovid-19EmergencyEM-3476-MT
Aug 30, 2018FloodFloodingMajor disasterDR-4388-MT
May 24, 2016Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and Straight-Line WindsMajor disasterDR-4271-MT
Jun 17, 2011Severe StormSevere Storms and FloodingMajor disasterDR-1996-MT
Sep 13, 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina EvacuationEmergencyEM-3253-MT
Jul 3, 2002Severe StormSevere Storms and FloodingMajor disasterDR-1424-MT
Aug 30, 2000FireWildfiresMajor disasterDR-1340-MT
May 16, 1996Severe StormSevere Storms, Flooding, Ice Jams, Soil SaturationMajor disasterDR-1113-MT
Mar 15, 1986FloodHeavy Rains, Landslides & FloodingMajor disasterDR-761-MT
Jun 28, 1975FloodRains, Showmelt, Storms & FloodingMajor disasterDR-472-MT

This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).

OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.

How this compares

Where Toole County stands among 56 counties in Montana and 3,143 in the United States.

Ranks
Tornadoes since 1950724 / 562,459 / 3,143
Tornadoes rated F3/EF3 or stronger0——
Tropical cyclones within 50 mi0——
Hurricane-strength passes within 50 mi0——
Wildfire acres since 19840——
Flood insurance claims144 / 562,799 / 3,143
Flood insurance paid$41644 / 562,847 / 3,143
Disaster declarations1219 / 562,631 / 3,143
Flood events since 19961247 / 562,837 / 3,143
Hail and wind events since 199652413 / 56405 / 3,143
Winter storm events since 19965253 / 561,904 / 3,143
Reported damage since 1996$34,00054 / 563,113 / 3,143
River crests at major flood stage49 / 56981 / 3,143
High tide flooding days a year, last 10 years0.0——
Months in severe drought since 189511543 / 561,895 / 3,143
Medium or heavy smoke days a year, last 10 years29.524 / 56238 / 3,143
Earthquakes M4+ within 50 mi since 1900137 / 561,397 / 3,143
Earthquakes M2.5+ in the county since 1973420 / 56505 / 3,143

Neighbouring counties

Neighbouring counties
Glacier County30123,6898
Liberty County4004
Pondera County0075,6560

Sources and vintage

Every number on this page comes from these public records.

  • Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
  • Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
  • Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
  • Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
  • Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
  • Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
  • Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USC00247500.
  • River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
  • Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
  • Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
  • Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.

Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.