Carrboro
Population 20,962 (2025)
21 tropical storms and hurricanes have passed within 50 miles of Carrboro since 1851; the strongest at closest approach was an unnamed storm in 1893 (Category 1).
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths within 25 miles since 195053
- Tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles since 1851, wider where stronger49
- Major flood years since 1978, Orange County5
At a glance
Tornado paths within 25 miles, tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles and wildfire perimeters within 25 miles of the city centre. Storm events, flood insurance claims and disaster declarations are for Orange County. Earthquakes within 50 miles, volcanoes within 100 miles and smoke days are measured from the city centre; river and tide gauges, tsunami and landslide records and the drought index are for Orange County.
Strongest tornado
F4
November 27, 1988, 83.0 mile path
Strongest tropical cyclone
Cat. 1
Hurricane (unnamed), 1893, 38.5 miles away
Tornadoes
About one every 1.4 years since 1950, 3 of them rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
November 27, 1988
F4, 83.0 mile path
400 yards wide; 4 killed along the whole path.
Deadliest
April 16, 2011
6 killed, EF3
103 injured along the whole path.
Most recent
Sunday, July 6, 2025
EF1, 0.2 mile path
Within the past year.
Every recorded tornado
| Jul 6, 2025 | EF1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | EF1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | EF1 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 6, 2025 | EF1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 2024 | EF1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | EF0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 23, 2022 | EF0 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| May 6, 2022 | EF1 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | EF1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| May 10, 2021 | EF1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 18, 2021 | EF1 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 13, 2020 | EF1 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF2 | 10.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF1 | 1.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 24, 2016 | EF1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| May 15, 2014 | EF1 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 16, 2011 | EF3 | 65.2 | 103 | 6 |
| Oct 27, 2010 | EF1 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 27, 2008 | EF0 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 |
| May 14, 2006 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 14, 2005 | F0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 2004 | F0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| May 31, 2003 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 1, 2001 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 19, 2000 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 7, 1998 | F1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 20, 1998 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 20, 1998 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 1996 | F0 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 27, 1994 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 28, 1994 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 27, 1993 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 23, 1992 | F3 | 5.5 | 10 | 2 |
| Mar 29, 1991 | F2 | 26.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 16, 1989 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 28, 1989 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 5, 1989 | F2 | 8.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 27, 1988 | F4 | 83.0 | 154 | 4 |
| Apr 4, 1984 | F2 | 1.7 | 4 | 0 |
| Jul 27, 1977 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 21, 1977 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| May 7, 1977 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dec 31, 1975 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 13, 1975 | F1 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Mar 19, 1975 | F1 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jul 11, 1967 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 14, 1967 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 7, 1965 | F2 | 6.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 29, 1959 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 18, 1956 | F2 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 5, 1952 | F2 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond this area.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
21 passed within 50 miles since 1851; 2 at hurricane strength.
Strongest within 50 miles
October 13, 1893
Unnamed storm, Category 1
38.5 miles at closest approach, winds near 90 mph.
Most recent
September 23, 2023
Ophelia, Tropical storm
92.3 miles at closest approach.
Every storm within 100 miles
| Ophelia | 2023 | 92.3 | Tropical storm |
| Elsa | 2021 | 24.5 | Tropical storm |
| Claudette | 2021 | 57.6 | Tropical storm |
| Zeta | 2020 | 88.0 | Tropical storm |
| Isaias | 2020 | 75.1 | Tropical storm |
| Nestor | 2019 | 41.4 | Post-tropical |
| Michael | 2018 | 8.4 | Tropical storm |
| Andrea | 2013 | 55.6 | Post-tropical |
| Hanna | 2008 | 57.5 | Tropical storm |
| Alberto | 2006 | 64.2 | Post-tropical |
| Isabel | 2003 | 93.9 | Category 1 |
| Earl | 1998 | 74.8 | Post-tropical |
| Fran | 1996 | 13.4 | Tropical storm |
| Bertha | 1996 | 97.8 | Tropical storm |
| Bob | 1985 | 64.3 | Tropical storm |
| Diana | 1984 | 88.5 | Tropical storm |
| David | 1979 | 59.7 | Tropical storm |
| Agnes | 1972 | 91.0 | Tropical storm |
| Alma | 1970 | 26.7 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1965 | 58.8 | Post-tropical |
| Isbell | 1964 | 83.2 | Post-tropical |
| Brenda | 1960 | 99.7 | Tropical storm |
| Flossy | 1956 | 99.0 | Post-tropical |
| Diane | 1955 | 28.2 | Tropical storm |
| Hazel | 1954 | 44.3 | Post-tropical |
| Able | 1952 | 61.3 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1952 | 89.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1949 | 84.9 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1947 | 86.0 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1945 | 5.9 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1944 | 29.7 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1944 | 51.5 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1935 | 32.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1929 | 16.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1928 | 79.5 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1924 | 88.5 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1916 | 74.8 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1915 | 63.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1913 | 53.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1912 | 70.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1904 | 39.8 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1902 | 68.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1902 | 16.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1899 | 37.0 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1896 | 16.9 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1894 | 98.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 38.5 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 74.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 53.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1889 | 7.3 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1888 | 14.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1886 | 42.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1886 | 28.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1885 | 6.0 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1883 | 54.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1882 | 21.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1878 | 44.0 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1877 | 31.1 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1876 | 98.6 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1874 | 77.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1867 | 33.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1859 | 10.7 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1854 | 54.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1851 | 78.7 | Tropical storm |
- Tropical storms and hurricanes (34 kt or more, still tropical) at closest approach. Post-tropical remnants with gale-force winds are listed but not counted. Direct: track within 50 miles; near: within 100 miles. Distance is measured to the county boundary for counties and to the city centre for cities, using positions interpolated hourly between HURDAT2 fixes.
National Hurricane Center HURDAT2, 1851 to 2025.
Wildfire and smoke
No large wildfire has been mapped within 25 miles since satellite mapping began in 1984.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 41 days
Heavy smoke on 6 days in 2023, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
9.6 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
8 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 29 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
568 federal flood insurance claims since 1978, with $36.4 million paid.
Flood insurance figures are for Orange County, the county that contains Carrboro.
Most claims in one year
2025: 177 claims
$21.1 million paid.
2nd most
2018: 89 claims
$5.5 million paid.
3rd most
2013: 75 claims
$4.6 million paid.
Claims by ZIP code
| 27514 | 316 | $26.2 million |
| 27517 | 134 | $4.6 million |
| 27510 | 45 | $2.6 million |
| 27516 | 43 | $1.6 million |
| 27278 | 20 | $1.3 million |
Flood events since 1996
- Flash Flood76
- Flood4
- Heavy Rain3
1 death recorded in flood events since 1996.
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
River crests
River gauges in Orange County, the county that contains Carrboro.
Most severe crest
September 6, 1996
Bolin Creek at Village Drive, 23.10 ft
8.10 feet above the 15.0 ft flood stage; major flooding by today’s categories.
Most recent moderate or major crest
July 6, 2025
Cane Creek near Carrboro, 9.74 ft
Moderate flooding.
River gauges
| Bolin Creek at Village Drive | 15.0 | 23.10 ft | 3 |
| Booker Creek at SR 1751 near Chapel Hill | 12.0 | 8.44 ft | 0 |
| Booker Creek near Chapel Hill | 14.0 | 17.61 ft | 0 |
| Cane Creek near Carrboro | 6.0 | 9.74 ft | 0 |
| Eno River at Hillsborough | 16.0 | 21.13 ft | 1 |
| Morgan Creek near Chapel Hill | 11.0 | 12.75 ft | 0 |
| Morgan Creek near White Cross | 8.0 | 9.87 ft | 0 |
- Crests are the highest and the recent crests the National Weather Service lists for each river gauge in the county that has a flood stage, not every flood. Flood categories use each gauge's current flood stages; crests from before levees, dams or channel changes may not be comparable. Crests measured on an old datum are left out of the rankings.
NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauge records, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 77 of 1,581 months since 1895 (5%); the longest spell lasted 9 months.
The drought index is for Orange County, the county that contains Carrboro.
77
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
19
Months in extreme drought
5%
Share of all months, severe or worse
Lowest reading
January 1942
−5.61, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
9 months
August 1941 to April 1942.
Latest month
September 2026
−4.20, extreme drought
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes and landslides
3 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more within 50 miles since 1981; none reached magnitude 4.
0
Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973
0
Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900
0
Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900
Largest within 50 miles
March 4, 1981
Magnitude 2.8
6 km E of Randleman, North Carolina; 37.3 miles away, 0.6 miles deep.
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the city centre.
- Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).
USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Mapped landslides
Landslides mapped in Orange County.
4
Landslides mapped, probable or better
2
With a recorded date
1
Source inventory
Mapped by NC GS (4).
- Landslides mapped in the USGS compilation of landslide inventories across the United States (version 3.0, 2025), rated probable or better. The compilation joins inventories made by federal and state agencies for different purposes and areas, so the number mapped in a county reflects how closely it has been surveyed as much as how often its slopes fail. An area with few records may simply not have been mapped. Deaths are as recorded in the inventories; a slide listed in two inventories is counted once.
USGS Landslide Inventories across the United States, version 3.0, retrieved October 27, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
592 events in the National Weather Service record for Orange County, 525 of them since 1996.
45
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
1
Hail, 2 inches or larger
250
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
79
Winter weather events since 1996
8
Heat events since 1996
2
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
May 14, 1967
2.75 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
April 26, 1986
79 mph
More event types since 1996
| Lightning | 10 | 2 |
Costliest events since 1996
- Jul 6, 2025Flash Flood$30.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
There were numerous reports of stranded/submerged vehicles, washed out roadways, apartments and residential homes flooded, and law enforcement performed multiple water rescues, including one at Camelot Village. Total estimated damages may have exceeded 30 million across Orange County.
- Sep 17, 2018Flood$26.4 million
National Weather Service narrative
Torrential rainfall of 6 to 10 inches caused widespread flooding across the county, which caused flooding along the Eno River and other creeks and streams throughout the county. Additionally, water held in Jordan Lake from rainfall in its headwaters resulted in flooding along the lake into far southeast portions of the county. Flooding damaged approximately 276 structures throughout the county, destroying 1 and resulting in $26.4 million in property damage. Numerous roads were closed due to flooding. Numerous homes and businesses were flooded as well. While final losses on crops are not yet tallied, estimates around $5 million or more are possible.
- Jul 23, 2000Flash Flood$6.4 million
National Weather Service narrative
Flooding of streets and buldings was reported countywide, especially in Chapel Hill and Carrboro. The Eastgate Shopping center was damaged, as well as several apartments and homes. A bridge was washed out on Piney Mountain Rd.
- Jun 30, 2013Flash Flood$3.6 million
National Weather Service narrative
Heavy rain (4-5 inches) resulted in extensive flooding in the city of Chapel Hill. The first floor of the Town Hall flooded and may be closed for up to a year for repairs. Franklin Street saw widespread flooding, with water above the windows of cars in several locations and some businesses also being impacted. Several buildings on the University of North Carolina had water in them, including the bottom floor of Granville Tower. Another area of the city that experienced flooding was the East Gate Shopping Center, where water entered several businesses and stranded many cars in the parking lot. One hard hit residential areas was along Estes Drive near Highway 15-501, where the…
- Mar 6, 2014Ice Storm, Orange$2.7 million
National Weather Service narrative
One quarter to one half of an inch of ice from freezing rain resulted in widespread downed trees and power-lines. Additionally, snowfall of 1 to 1.5 inches fell across the county.
- Apr 19, 2019Tornado$2.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
A tornado initially touched down in the White Cross area and Leslie Drive area of southwest Orange County. Considerable tree damage occurred in this area, including the snapping and splitting of healthy large-trunk trees. Subsequent damage to vehicles and homes occurred as the trees fell. Given the magnitude and nature of the damage, wind speeds were estimated at 110 mph. The tornado then tracked north-northeast eventually crossing Dodsons Cross Road, Dairlyland Road, Arthur Minnis Road, and Borland Roads, all while producing similar tree damage. The tornado finally began to lift and/or dissipate near Hillsborough just north of I-40 near exit 261, but not before producing…
- Dec 11, 2008Lightning$1.5 million
National Weather Service narrative
Lightning struck a home in Chapel Hill and caught fire. The house burned to the ground when the lightning got into the gas lines of the home.
- Oct 29, 2020Strong Wind, Orange$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Frequent wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph resulted in scattered to numerous trees and power lines down across Orange County, including some on homes. Numerous customers lost power in Orange County as a result of the strong winds.
- Feb 25, 2015Winter Storm, Orange$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Snowfall/sleet amounts of 5 to 8 inches fell across the county. The heavy wet snow caused widespread power outages from falling trees and power lines. At the peak of the storm, over 7,000 customers were without power in the county.
- Jul 2, 2002Lightning$880,000
National Weather Service narrative
Lightning started at least three house fires around Chapel Hill. The worst damage was sustained at a condominium complex on Copperline Drive.
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From Chapel Hill 2 W, 1.3 miles from the city centre, with records from 1891.
- All-time high
- 107°F2 times, most recently Jul 19, 1902
- All-time low
- −8°FJan 21, 1985
- Warmest night
- 80°F2 times, most recently Jul 20, 1946
- Coldest day
- 8°FFeb 13, 1899
- Wettest day
- 8.00 inJul 7, 2025
- Snowiest day
- 12.0 in2 times, most recently Dec 17, 1930
- Hottest year
- 1921mean 63.9°F
- Coldest year
- 1978mean 55.4°F
- Wettest year
- 192967.92 in
- Driest year
- 194130.19 in
- Snowiest season
- 21.3 in1979-80
Median first snow
January 8
Earliest: November 10, 1987
Median last snow
February 11
Latest: April 19, 1983
15 of 60 winters had no measurable snow.
Station Chapel Hill 2 W (USC00311677), 500 ft elevation, 1.3 miles from the city centre. Daily records from 1891 to October 28, 2026; 96.8% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
26 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm, January 24, 2026.
Declarations for Orange County.
| Jan 24, 2026 | Winter Storm | EM-3637-NC |
| Sep 11, 2025 | Tropical Depression | DR-4889-NC |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Tropical Storm | EM-3617-NC |
| Aug 6, 2024 | Tropical Storm | EM-3608-NC |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Hurricane | EM-3586-NC |
| Aug 2, 2020 | Hurricane | EM-3534-NC |
| Mar 25, 2020 | Biological | DR-4487-NC |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3471-NC |
| Sep 3, 2019 | Hurricane | EM-3423-NC |
| Jan 31, 2019 | Hurricane | DR-4412-NC |
| Sep 14, 2018 | Hurricane | DR-4393-NC |
| Sep 10, 2018 | Hurricane | EM-3401-NC |
| Oct 7, 2016 | Hurricane | EM-3380-NC |
| Mar 31, 2014 | Severe Ice Storm | DR-4167-NC |
| Sep 5, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3222-NC |
| Sep 18, 2003 | Hurricane | DR-1490-NC |
| Mar 27, 2003 | Severe Ice Storm | DR-1457-NC |
| Dec 12, 2002 | Severe Ice Storm | DR-1448-NC |
| Jan 31, 2000 | Severe Storm | DR-1312-NC |
| Sep 16, 1999 | Hurricane | DR-1292-NC |
| Sep 15, 1999 | Hurricane | EM-3146-NC |
| Sep 6, 1996 | Hurricane | DR-1134-NC |
| Jan 13, 1996 | Snowstorm | DR-1087-NC |
| Mar 17, 1993 | Snowstorm | EM-3110-NC |
| Aug 11, 1977 | Drought | EM-3049-NC |
| Mar 2, 1977 | Snowstorm | EM-3033-NC |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USC00311677.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Landslides USGS Landslide Inventories across the United States, version 3.0 (2025).
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.