Winchester
Population 28,272 (2025)
52 tornadoes have tracked within 25 miles of Winchester since 1950, 0 of them rated EF3 or F3 or stronger; the most recent was on August 8, 2024.
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths within 25 miles since 195052
- Tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles since 1851, wider where stronger15
- Wildfire burn scars within 25 miles since 19844
At a glance
Tornado paths within 25 miles, tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles and wildfire perimeters within 25 miles of the city centre. Storm events, flood insurance claims and disaster declarations are for Winchester city. Earthquakes within 50 miles, volcanoes within 100 miles and smoke days are measured from the city centre; river and tide gauges, tsunami and landslide records and the drought index are for Winchester city.
Strongest tornado
EF2
April 28, 2011, 33.5 mile path
Strongest tropical cyclone
Cat. 1
Hurricane (unnamed), 1893, 15.8 miles away
Tornadoes
About one every 1.5 years since 1950, none rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
April 28, 2011
EF2, 33.5 mile path
400 yards wide.
Most recent
Thursday, August 8, 2024
EF1, 4.8 mile path
2 years ago.
Every recorded tornado
| Aug 8, 2024 | EF1 | 4.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 5, 2024 | EF0 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 5, 2024 | EF0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| May 3, 2021 | EF1 | 1.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Jul 5, 2017 | EF0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 30, 2017 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 13, 2014 | EF0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 8, 2014 | EF1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2011 | EF0 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2011 | EF2 | 33.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2008 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2008 | EF0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2008 | EF1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 20, 2008 | EF0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 2.0 | 6 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F1 | 9.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 21, 2004 | F0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 9, 2003 | F1 | 10.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 9, 2003 | F0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 27, 2001 | F1 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 30, 1998 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 30, 1998 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 16, 1998 | F1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 16, 1998 | F1 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 2, 1998 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 2, 1998 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 18, 1997 | F0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 18, 1997 | F0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 18, 1997 | F1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 24, 1996 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 13, 1994 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 26, 1993 | F1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 16, 1993 | F0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 16, 1993 | F0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 16, 1993 | F1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 1990 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nov 16, 1989 | F2 | 9.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Aug 2, 1986 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 2, 1979 | F1 | 7.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Jul 20, 1979 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 21, 1976 | F1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 4, 1975 | F2 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 9, 1970 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 26, 1965 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 2, 1962 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 13, 1961 | F2 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 7, 1954 | F1 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond this area.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
9 passed within 50 miles since 1851; 1 at hurricane strength.
Strongest within 50 miles
October 14, 1893
Unnamed storm, Category 1
15.8 miles at closest approach, winds near 74 mph.
Most recent
October 29, 2020
Zeta, Post-tropical
94.6 miles at closest approach.
Every storm within 100 miles
| Zeta | 2020 | 94.6 | Post-tropical |
| Sandy | 2012 | 67.0 | Post-tropical |
| Ernesto | 2006 | 79.2 | Post-tropical |
| Isabel | 2003 | 53.0 | Tropical storm |
| David | 1979 | 17.4 | Tropical storm |
| Diane | 1955 | 22.3 | Tropical storm |
| Connie | 1955 | 75.0 | Tropical storm |
| Hazel | 1954 | 41.7 | Post-tropical |
| Able | 1952 | 31.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1949 | 19.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1945 | 87.5 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1943 | 76.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1934 | 17.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1933 | 55.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1929 | 79.3 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1928 | 18.6 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1915 | 41.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1899 | 85.8 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1896 | 28.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 47.8 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 15.8 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 37.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1888 | 66.0 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1885 | 14.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1878 | 53.7 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1878 | 64.1 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1876 | 33.5 | Tropical storm |
- Tropical storms and hurricanes (34 kt or more, still tropical) at closest approach. Post-tropical remnants with gale-force winds are listed but not counted. Direct: track within 50 miles; near: within 100 miles. Distance is measured to the county boundary for counties and to the city centre for cities, using positions interpolated hourly between HURDAT2 fixes.
National Hurricane Center HURDAT2, 1851 to 2025.
Wildfire and smoke
4 large fires burned within 25 miles since 1984.
Largest
March 20, 2024
Waites Run Fire, 5,498 acres
21.9 miles from the city centre.
Most recent
March 20, 2024
Waites Run Fire
5,498 acres in total.
Every large fire
| Waites Run | 2024 | 21.9 | 5,498 |
| Point 2 | 2012 | 21.3 | 1,127 |
| Smith Run Fire | 2011 | 23.7 | 1,911 |
| Unnamed | 1984 | 17.2 | 696 |
- Large fires mapped by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity program since 1984: 1,000 acres or more in the West, 500 or more in the East. Prescribed burns are excluded. Acres here are the part of each perimeter inside this place.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (USGS and U.S. Forest Service), 1984 to 2026.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 51 days
Heavy smoke on 13 days in 2023, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
12.1 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
12 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 29 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
17 federal flood insurance claims since 1978, with $101,000 paid.
Flood insurance figures are for Winchester city, the county that contains Winchester.
Claims by ZIP code
| 22601 | 16 | $101,000 |
Flood events since 1996
- Flash Flood9
- Heavy Rain9
- Flood5
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 97 of 1,581 months since 1895 (6%); the longest spell lasted 12 months.
The drought index is for Winchester city, the county that contains Winchester.
97
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
33
Months in extreme drought
6%
Share of all months, severe or worse
11
Drought reports to the Weather Service since 1996
Lowest reading
January 1931
−6.27, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
12 months
July 1930 to June 1931.
Latest month
September 2026
−2.62, moderate drought
Last severe month: July 2026.
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes
1 earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles since 1900; the largest was magnitude 4.6 in 1918.
3
Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973
1
Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900
0
Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900
Largest within 50 miles
April 9, 1918
Magnitude 4.6
6 km NE of Luray, Virginia; 34.9 miles away.
Most recent, magnitude 3 or more
January 17, 2016
Magnitude 3.0
3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia; 21.2 miles away.
Every earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles
| Apr 9, 1918 | 4.6 | 34.9 |
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the city centre.
- Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).
USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
490 events in the National Weather Service record for Winchester city, 485 of them since 1996.
6
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
1
Hail, 2 inches or larger
33
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
209
Winter weather events since 1996
39
Heat events since 1996
51
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
April 23, 1999
2.75 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
May 21, 2004
81 mph
More event types since 1996
| Lightning | 2 | 0 |
| Dense fog and smoke | 65 | 0 |
Costliest events since 1996
- Apr 23, 1999Hail$2.5 million
National Weather Service narrative
A line of thunderstorms developed in West Virginia during the early afternoon and moved rapidly southeast across Northern Virginia. These storms produced very large hail in a 10 mile wide strip from Winchester in Frederick County to Woodbridge in Prince William County from 3:30 PM EDT to 5:00 PM EDT. Winds over 55 MPH also downed trees and power lines in Frederick and Clarke County between 3:30 PM EDT and 4:15 PM EDT. Frederick County spotters reported between 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 inch diameter hail. The rubber membrane roof of the War Memorial Building in Winchester was punctured by hail the size of golf balls, allowing heavy rain to fall inside the structure and cause significant…
- Feb 14, 2003Winter Storm, Frederick$1.4 million
National Weather Service narrative
A complex storm system produced copious amounts of wintery precipitation across the northern third of Virginia between the evening of the 14th and midday on the 18th. The first batch of precipitation fell between the evening of the 14th and the evening of the 15th in the form of light to moderate snow or rain. The second batch of precipitation fell between midnight on the 16th through midday on the 17th in the form of heavy snow or sleet. The third batch of precipitation on the back side of the storm fell between the evening of the 17th and midday on the 18th in the form of scattered snow showers. After the precipitation came to an end, record breaking snow and sleet accumulations…
- Sep 18, 2003High Wind, Frederick$500,000
National Weather Service narrative
By 9 pm on September 18, a rain band associated with Isabel had set up over the Shenandoah Valley and showers were training southward into the Blue Ridge Mountains on the east side of Augusta County. The rain gauge located at Upper Sherando had recorded over 6 inches of rain and more was to come. County officials quickly began evacuations of homes downstream. In all 350 people in the South River area would be evacuated and 21 of those ended up being by boat. Water flowed down the Black Creek at 60 mph washing out the bridge and several hundred feet of asphalt along Route 608. Four spillways to dams flooded causing damage but none of them failed. There was $125,000 damage to the…
- Jan 14, 2006High Wind, Frederick$100,000
National Weather Service narrative
Very strong winds developed on the 14th due to a strengthening low pressure system off the Mid Atlantic Coast and a fast moving cold front that passed through the region early in the day. Widespread damages and power outages occurred, with newspaper reports indicating tens of thousands without power for an extended period of time.
- Jul 17, 2021Thunderstorm Wind$100,000
National Weather Service narrative
Numerous trees and wires blew down in Winchester. A large tree blew down into the roadway at the corner of Fort Collier Road and Berryville Avenue. A tree blew into the roadway at the corner of Jubal Early Drive and Plaza Drive. A tree blew down in the 100 block of Lambden Avenue. The roof of a nearby townhome blew off.
- May 26, 2021Thunderstorm Wind$50,000
National Weather Service narrative
Numerous trees blew down in the vicinity of the Apple Blossom Mall. Power lines and a traffic light were blown down near the intersection of Hillcrest Avenue and Massanutten Terrace. Numerous trees were blown down near the intersection of Adam Drive and South Pleasant Valley Road.
- Feb 10, 2008High Wind, Frederick$50,000
National Weather Service narrative
Frederick County Emergency Management and Winchester Police reported trees and power lines down across the city and county. A trained spotter reported a roof collapse at an apartment building just east of Interstate 81 near Route 7.
- Jan 7, 1996Blizzard, Frederick$35,000
National Weather Service narrative
An historic winter storm, known as the "Blizzard of '96", crippled all of northern Virginia during the first full weekend of January. In general, snow totals ranged from 20 inches on the coastal plain (VAZ052>53; 055>057) to over 3 feet at the higher elevations of the central and northern Shenandoah Valley. To complicate matters, winds gusting in excess of 35 mph produced drifts of 4 to 7 feet, except over 10 feet in the mountains. The storm produced the largest statewide storm totals since the "Megalopolitan Storm" of February 11th, 1983. Numerous 24-hour accumulation records were shattered at airports from southwest Virginia through New England; Washington/Dulles airport (IAD;…
- Jun 22, 2022Thunderstorm Wind$30,000
National Weather Service narrative
A couple dozen trees and wires blew down across the City of Winchester.
- Jun 29, 2012Thunderstorm Wind$25,000
National Weather Service narrative
A strong upper-level disturbance passed through the region in a northwest flow aloft. Extremely hot and humid conditions caused high amounts of instability. The upper-level disturbance triggered a line of thunderstorms that moved through the area. Due to the high instability, thunderstorms caused widespread wind damage.
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From Winchester 7 Se, 4.7 miles from the city centre, with records from 1912.
- All-time high
- 107°F2 times, most recently Jul 17, 1988
- All-time low
- −18°FJan 19, 1994
- Warmest night
- 82°F2 times, most recently Jul 7, 1925
- Coldest day
- 5°FJan 11, 1982
- Wettest day
- 6.51 inOct 15, 1942
- Snowiest day
- 22.0 inMar 6, 1962
- Hottest year
- 1953mean 57.3°F
- Coldest year
- 1981mean 51.5°F
- Wettest year
- 201863.35 in
- Driest year
- 193017.15 in
- Snowiest season
- 71.0 in1960-61
Median first snow
December 15
Earliest: October 29, 2011
Median last snow
March 11
Latest: April 24, 1956
1 of 73 winters had no measurable snow.
Station Winchester 7 Se (USC00449186), 680 ft elevation, 4.7 miles from the city centre. Daily records from 1912 to October 28, 2026; 87.9% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
14 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm, January 23, 2026.
Declarations for Winchester city.
| Jan 23, 2026 | Winter Storm | EM-3631-VA |
| Apr 2, 2020 | Biological | DR-4512-VA |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3448-VA |
| Sep 11, 2018 | Hurricane | EM-3403-VA |
| Mar 7, 2016 | Snowstorm | DR-4262-VA |
| Oct 29, 2012 | Hurricane | EM-3359-VA |
| Jul 27, 2012 | Severe Storm | DR-4072-VA |
| Apr 27, 2010 | Snowstorm | DR-1905-VA |
| Sep 12, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3240-VA |
| Sep 18, 2003 | Hurricane | DR-1491-VA |
| Mar 27, 2003 | Severe Storm | DR-1458-VA |
| Jan 13, 1996 | Snowstorm | DR-1086-VA |
| Mar 25, 1993 | Snowstorm | EM-3112-VA |
| Jun 23, 1972 | Flood | DR-339-VA |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USC00449186.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.