Manassas
Population 44,332 (2025)
11 tropical storms and hurricanes have passed within 50 miles of Manassas since 1851; the strongest at closest approach was an unnamed storm in 1878 (Category 1).
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths within 25 miles since 195088
- Tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles since 1851, wider where stronger26
- Wildfire burn scars within 25 miles since 19841
At a glance
Tornado paths within 25 miles, tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles and wildfire perimeters within 25 miles of the city centre. Storm events, flood insurance claims and disaster declarations are for Manassas city. Earthquakes within 50 miles, volcanoes within 100 miles and smoke days are measured from the city centre; river and tide gauges, tsunami and landslide records and the drought index are for Manassas city.
Strongest tornado
F4
April 28, 2002, 38.0 mile path
Strongest tropical cyclone
Cat. 1
Hurricane (unnamed), 1878, 23.2 miles away
Tornadoes
About one tornado a year since 1950, 6 of them rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
April 28, 2002
F4, 38.0 mile path
650 yards wide; 3 killed along the whole path.
Most recent
Thursday, August 8, 2024
EF1, 6.9 mile path
2 years ago.
Every recorded tornado
| Aug 8, 2024 | EF1 | 6.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | EF0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 31, 2022 | EF0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 1, 2021 | EF1 | 4.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Feb 7, 2020 | EF0 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 19, 2019 | EF0 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2018 | EF0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 11, 2017 | EF0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 6, 2017 | EF0 | 4.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 6, 2017 | EF0 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 6, 2017 | EF0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 6, 2017 | EF0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 6, 2017 | EF0 | 0.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 20, 2015 | EF0 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 15, 2014 | EF0 | 2.3 | 0 | 0 |
| May 16, 2014 | EF0 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 13, 2013 | EF0 | 20.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 1, 2012 | EF0 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2011 | EF0 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2011 | EF0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2011 | EF0 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2011 | EF0 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF0 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF1 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF0 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 16, 2011 | EF0 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2011 | EF0 | 4.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Mar 10, 2011 | EF1 | 4.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2008 | EF0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2008 | EF1 | 9.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2008 | EF0 | 5.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 4, 2008 | EF0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 8, 2008 | EF2 | 3.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2005 | F1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 30, 2005 | F0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 15.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F1 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F1 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F1 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 13.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 8.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F3 | 9.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F0 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F1 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 9, 2003 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 9, 2003 | F1 | 10.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 7, 2003 | F1 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 28, 2002 | F4 | 38.0 | 122 | 3 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | F1 | 14.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | F0 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | F1 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | F4 | 10.0 | 2 | 0 |
| May 22, 2001 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 18, 1997 | F0 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 25, 1997 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 19, 1996 | F0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 24, 1996 | F2 | 20.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jun 24, 1996 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 14, 1995 | F0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 5, 1995 | F1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 27, 1994 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 1993 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 1993 | F2 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jul 14, 1993 | F0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 16, 1993 | F0 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 4, 1992 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | F0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 18, 1990 | F1 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 21, 1987 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 12, 1987 | F1 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 1983 | F2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 1983 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 1983 | F0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 28, 1981 | F2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jun 3, 1980 | F2 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | F2 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 |
| Sep 5, 1979 | F3 | 17.9 | 6 | 1 |
| Jun 20, 1978 | F2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | F3 | 0.7 | 10 | 1 |
| Apr 1, 1973 | F3 | 9.8 | 37 | 0 |
| Aug 9, 1969 | F2 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 7, 1954 | F1 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 |
| May 17, 1953 | F1 | 5.9 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 31, 1952 | F1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Aug 31, 1952 | F1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond this area.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
11 passed within 50 miles since 1851; 2 at hurricane strength.
Strongest within 50 miles
October 23, 1878
Unnamed storm, Category 1
23.2 miles at closest approach, winds near 92 mph.
Most recent
July 9, 2021
Elsa, Tropical storm
95.1 miles at closest approach.
Every storm within 100 miles
| Elsa | 2021 | 95.1 | Tropical storm |
| Zeta | 2020 | 49.9 | Post-tropical |
| Isaias | 2020 | 63.1 | Tropical storm |
| Sandy | 2012 | 89.6 | Post-tropical |
| Hanna | 2008 | 74.0 | Tropical storm |
| Ernesto | 2006 | 42.2 | Post-tropical |
| Isabel | 2003 | 73.2 | Tropical storm |
| Bertha | 1996 | 80.9 | Tropical storm |
| Danielle | 1992 | 94.3 | Tropical storm |
| David | 1979 | 63.0 | Tropical storm |
| Diane | 1955 | 25.0 | Tropical storm |
| Connie | 1955 | 51.8 | Tropical storm |
| Hazel | 1954 | 5.8 | Post-tropical |
| Able | 1952 | 20.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1949 | 28.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1945 | 40.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1944 | 55.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1943 | 44.3 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1934 | 24.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1933 | 15.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1929 | 34.6 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1928 | 15.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1928 | 77.6 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1915 | 12.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1904 | 91.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1902 | 68.1 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1902 | 94.3 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1899 | 38.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1896 | 61.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 42.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 33.4 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 17.5 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1888 | 75.9 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1885 | 31.5 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1882 | 95.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1878 | 23.2 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1877 | 84.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1876 | 8.3 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1874 | 88.7 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1872 | 86.0 | Tropical storm |
- Tropical storms and hurricanes (34 kt or more, still tropical) at closest approach. Post-tropical remnants with gale-force winds are listed but not counted. Direct: track within 50 miles; near: within 100 miles. Distance is measured to the county boundary for counties and to the city centre for cities, using positions interpolated hourly between HURDAT2 fixes.
National Hurricane Center HURDAT2, 1851 to 2025.
Wildfire and smoke
1 large fire burned within 25 miles since 1984.
Largest
April 14, 1999
Nco Fire, 818 acres
14.0 miles from the city centre.
Most recent
April 14, 1999
Nco Fire
818 acres in total.
Every large fire
| Nco | 1999 | 14.0 | 818 |
- Large fires mapped by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity program since 1984: 1,000 acres or more in the West, 500 or more in the East. Prescribed burns are excluded. Acres here are the part of each perimeter inside this place.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (USGS and U.S. Forest Service), 1984 to 2026.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 49 days
Heavy smoke on 11 days in 2023, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
11.8 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
12 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 28 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
25 federal flood insurance claims since 1978, with $119,000 paid.
Flood insurance figures are for Manassas city, the county that contains Manassas.
Most claims in one year
2011: 7 claims
$46,000 paid.
Claims by ZIP code
| 20110 | 23 | $104,000 |
Flood events since 1996
- Flash Flood9
- Flood7
- Heavy Rain6
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 142 of 1,581 months since 1895 (9%); the longest spell lasted 28 months.
The drought index is for Manassas city, the county that contains Manassas.
142
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
50
Months in extreme drought
9%
Share of all months, severe or worse
Lowest reading
February 1931
−6.87, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
28 months
June 2024 to September 2026.
Latest month
September 2026
−3.16, severe drought
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes
1 earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles since 1900; the largest was magnitude 4.6 in 1918.
2
Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973
1
Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900
0
Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900
Largest within 50 miles
April 9, 1918
Magnitude 4.6
6 km NE of Luray, Virginia; 49.6 miles away.
Most recent, magnitude 3 or more
January 17, 2016
Magnitude 3.0
3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia; 43.7 miles away.
Every earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles
| Apr 9, 1918 | 4.6 | 49.6 |
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the city centre.
- Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).
USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
80 events in the National Weather Service record for Manassas city, 80 of them since 1996.
8
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
0
Hail, 2 inches or larger
28
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
0
Winter weather events since 1996
0
Heat events since 1996
0
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
June 15, 1998
1.75 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
March 13, 2001
71 mph
More event types since 1996
| Lightning | 2 | 0 |
Costliest events since 1996
- Apr 23, 1999Hail$2.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
A line of thunderstorms developed in West Virginia during the early afternoon and moved rapidly southeast across Northern Virginia. These storms produced very large hail in a 10 mile wide strip from Winchester in Frederick County to Woodbridge in Prince William County from 3:30 PM EDT to 5:00 PM EDT. Winds over 55 MPH also downed trees and power lines in Frederick and Clarke County between 3:30 PM EDT and 4:15 PM EDT. Frederick County spotters reported between 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 inch diameter hail. The rubber membrane roof of the War Memorial Building in Winchester was punctured by hail the size of golf balls, allowing heavy rain to fall inside the structure and cause significant…
- Aug 3, 2002Thunderstorm Wind$500,000
National Weather Service narrative
Numerous thunderstorms with high winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours moved through the region between 2 and 8 PM EDT. In Nelson County, trees were downed in Arrington and Piedmont. Flood waters covered Route 56 in Shipman. In Augusta County, trees were downed in Mint Spring. Two campers were injured by lightning in Natural Chimneys Regional Park near Mt. Solon. They were holding onto an awning when lightning struck and they both sustained minor injuries. Lightning also downed trees onto two cars and a mobile home nearby. In Highland County, a few trees were downed in Mill Gap. In Rockingham County, the hardest hit community was Harrisonburg. Two buildings,…
- May 26, 2021Thunderstorm Wind$150,000
National Weather Service narrative
Widespread wind damage was reported in and around Manassas. A tree blew down on Fairview Avenue next to the Manassas Police Station. Multiple large tree limbs were snapped off near the intersection of Sudley Road and VA-28 Centreville Road. Nearby, a tree fell onto a mobile home, destroying it. Numerous trees were blown down in the 9000 block of VA-28 Centreville Road.
- Jun 4, 2008Thunderstorm Wind$40,000
National Weather Service narrative
A local newspaper reported a tree had fallen onto a house and a car and part of the roof of an elementary school was blown off.
- Aug 9, 2000Thunderstorm Wind$30,000
National Weather Service narrative
Trees and power lines were downed and picnic tables and concession tents were damaged at an amusment park.
- Jun 22, 2006Thunderstorm Wind$20,000
National Weather Service narrative
Thunderstorms brought several trees and large limbs down across the city.
- May 12, 2008Flood$20,000
National Weather Service narrative
Homes on Lake Drive near Leland Road were flooded.
- Jun 4, 2008Thunderstorm Wind$10,000
National Weather Service narrative
A trained spotter reported a tree had fallen onto a pickup truck.
- Jul 16, 2025Thunderstorm Wind$5,000
National Weather Service narrative
There were several calls for trees and wires blown down in the City of Manassas.
- Jun 15, 1998Hail$3,000
National Weather Service narrative
The juxtaposition of a northward moving warm front, strong surface low pressure over the midwest, and a fast upper-level jet combined to produce another outbreak of severe weather - this coming two days after a notable episode over much of northern Virginia on the 13th. Once again, damage was highlighted by downed trees, large hail, and several cases of flash flooding. Much of the notable tree damage occurred over and east of the piedmont; flash flooding was seen over and west of the piedmont.The episode was dominated by a single supercell which developed over the west central piedmont near the Blue Ridge and propagated east through Fauquier, Prince William, Fairfax, and Arlington…
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From Washington Dulles International Airport, 13.1 miles from the city centre, with records from 1960.
- All-time high
- 105°FJul 22, 2011
- All-time low
- −18°FJan 22, 1984
- Warmest night
- 81°FJul 16, 2026
- Coldest day
- 6°FJan 19, 1994
- Wettest day
- 10.67 inJun 21, 1972
- Snowiest day
- 22.5 inFeb 11, 1983
- Hottest year
- 2024mean 58.9°F
- Coldest year
- 1976mean 51.9°F
- Wettest year
- 201866.74 in
- Driest year
- 200727.02 in
- Snowiest season
- 73.2 in2009-10
Median first snow
December 10
Earliest: October 10, 1979
Median last snow
March 14
Latest: April 12, 1973
0 of 63 winters had no measurable snow.
Station Washington Dulles International Airport (USW00093738), 294 ft elevation, 13.1 miles from the city centre. Daily records from 1960 to October 27, 2026; 100.0% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
15 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm, January 23, 2026.
Declarations for Manassas city.
| Jan 23, 2026 | Winter Storm | EM-3631-VA |
| Apr 2, 2020 | Biological | DR-4512-VA |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3448-VA |
| Sep 11, 2018 | Hurricane | EM-3403-VA |
| Mar 7, 2016 | Snowstorm | DR-4262-VA |
| Nov 26, 2012 | Hurricane | DR-4092-VA |
| Oct 29, 2012 | Hurricane | EM-3359-VA |
| Apr 27, 2010 | Snowstorm | DR-1905-VA |
| Feb 16, 2010 | Snowstorm | DR-1874-VA |
| Sep 12, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3240-VA |
| Sep 18, 2003 | Hurricane | DR-1491-VA |
| Mar 27, 2003 | Severe Storm | DR-1458-VA |
| Feb 28, 2000 | Severe Storm | DR-1318-VA |
| Jan 13, 1996 | Snowstorm | DR-1086-VA |
| Mar 25, 1993 | Snowstorm | EM-3112-VA |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USW00093738.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.