Prince William County
Population 502,966 (2025) 335 sq mi
Property owners in Prince William County have filed 485 federal flood insurance claims since 1978, 17th most of 133 counties in Virginia.
Hazard fingerprint Each spoke is this county’s percentile among U.S. counties where that hazard occurs. How it is computed
- Tornado damage paths since 195014
- Tropical cyclone tracks within 100 miles since 1851, wider where stronger35
- Wildfire burn scars since 19841
- Major flood years since 19788
At a glance
The record for Prince William County in eight numbers. Each links to its section below.
Tropical cyclones within 50 mi
16
56th of 133 in Virginia
2 at hurricane strength since 1851
DetailsStrongest tornado
F3
January 26, 1978, 0.7 mile path
Strongest tropical cyclone
Cat. 1
Hurricane (unnamed), 1878, 8.4 miles away
Tornadoes
About one every 5.4 years since 1950, one of them rated F3/EF3 or stronger.
Strongest
January 26, 1978
F3, 0.7 mile path
250 yards wide; 1 killed along the whole path.
Most recent
Saturday, June 20, 2015
EF0, 2.1 mile path
11 years ago.
Every recorded tornado
| Jun 20, 2015 | EF0 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2011 | EF0 | 1.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 13, 2011 | EF0 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF1 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Apr 27, 2011 | EF0 | 3.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2008 | EF0 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 17, 2004 | F2 | 4.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2004 | F0 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 24, 2001 | F0 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| May 22, 2001 | F0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Oct 14, 1995 | F0 | 0.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Sep 27, 1993 | F2 | 3.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jul 21, 1987 | F0 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jan 26, 1978 | F3 | 0.7 | 10 | 1 |
- Injuries and deaths are for the tornado’s whole path, which may extend beyond the county. Deaths recorded within Prince William County: 1.
- Weak tornadoes were under-recorded before Doppler radar coverage became national in the early 1990s, so earlier decades read low. Ratings use the Fujita scale before February 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita scale after.
Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, 1950 to 2025.
Hurricanes and tropical storms
16 passed within 50 miles since 1851; 2 at hurricane strength.
Strongest within 50 miles
October 23, 1878
Unnamed storm, Category 1
8.4 miles at closest approach, winds near 94 mph.
Most recent
July 9, 2021
Elsa, Tropical storm
77.4 miles at closest approach.
Every storm within 100 miles
| Elsa | 2021 | 77.4 | Tropical storm |
| Zeta | 2020 | 30.7 | Post-tropical |
| Isaias | 2020 | 46.0 | Tropical storm |
| Andrea | 2013 | 95.9 | Post-tropical |
| Sandy | 2012 | 77.9 | Post-tropical |
| Hanna | 2008 | 57.0 | Tropical storm |
| Ernesto | 2006 | 28.3 | Post-tropical |
| Gaston | 2004 | 96.7 | Tropical storm |
| Isabel | 2003 | 65.8 | Tropical storm |
| Bertha | 1996 | 65.2 | Tropical storm |
| Danielle | 1992 | 82.1 | Tropical storm |
| David | 1979 | 48.7 | Tropical storm |
| Doria | 1971 | 99.3 | Tropical storm |
| Brenda | 1960 | 88.5 | Tropical storm |
| Diane | 1955 | 8.9 | Tropical storm |
| Connie | 1955 | 40.2 | Tropical storm |
| Hazel | 1954 | 0.0 | Post-tropical |
| Able | 1952 | 6.9 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1949 | 14.5 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1945 | 21.7 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1944 | 89.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1944 | 36.4 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1943 | 31.9 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1934 | 13.3 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1933 | 3.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1929 | 19.2 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1928 | 1.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1928 | 58.2 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1916 | 99.1 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1915 | 9.3 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1904 | 73.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1902 | 49.4 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1902 | 75.1 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1899 | 22.0 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1896 | 48.5 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 38.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 22.9 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1893 | 9.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1888 | 57.8 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1888 | 87.8 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1886 | 82.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1885 | 18.7 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1882 | 97.9 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1882 | 76.2 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1878 | 8.4 | Category 1 |
| Unnamed | 1878 | 91.2 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1877 | 67.9 | Post-tropical |
| Unnamed | 1876 | 0.0 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1874 | 72.5 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1872 | 69.6 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1863 | 88.1 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1861 | 98.7 | Tropical storm |
| Unnamed | 1859 | 82.0 | Tropical storm |
- Tropical storms and hurricanes (34 kt or more, still tropical) at closest approach. Post-tropical remnants with gale-force winds are listed but not counted. Direct: track within 50 miles; near: within 100 miles. Distance is measured to the county boundary for counties and to the city centre for cities, using positions interpolated hourly between HURDAT2 fixes.
National Hurricane Center HURDAT2, 1851 to 2025.
Wildfire and smoke
816 acres burned in 1 large fire since 1984, equal to 0.4% of the land.
Largest
April 14, 1999
Nco Fire, 818 acres
816 acres inside Prince William County.
Most recent
April 14, 1999
Nco Fire
818 acres in total.
Every large fire
| Nco | 1999 | 816 | 818 |
- Large fires mapped by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity program since 1984: 1,000 acres or more in the West, 500 or more in the East. Prescribed burns are excluded. Acres here are the part of each perimeter inside this place.
Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (USGS and U.S. Forest Service), 1984 to 2026.
Smoke overhead
Smokiest year
2023: 49 days
Heavy smoke on 11 days in 2023, the most of any year.
Last 10 years
11.9 days a year
Medium or heavy smoke, 2016 to 2025.
2025
13 days
Medium or heavy smoke. 28 so far in 2026.
- A smoke day is a date on which a smoke plume traced by NOAA Hazard Mapping System analysts from satellite imagery covered this place's point (the county's population centre or the city centre). Counts here are of medium or heavy smoke. Since 2018 analysts have often drawn light smoke as one area over most of the continent, so light-smoke counts are not comparable from year to year. The plumes show smoke anywhere in the air above, not air quality at the ground, and smoke hidden by cloud is missed.
NOAA Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, 2011 to 2026, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Floods and flood insurance
485 federal flood insurance claims since 1978, with $5.8 million paid.
Most claims in one year
2011: 58 claims
$649,000 paid.
2nd most
2008: 37 claims
$625,000 paid.
3rd most
2018: 32 claims
$358,000 paid.
Claims by ZIP code
| 20111 | 119 | $1.2 million |
| 22191 | 112 | $3.1 million |
| 22193 | 43 | $307,000 |
| 20109 | 39 | $192,000 |
| 20112 | 29 | $374,000 |
| 22192 | 25 | $59,000 |
| 22025 | 20 | $69,000 |
| 22125 | 16 | $40,000 |
| 20169 | 15 | $28,000 |
| 22026 | 13 | $66,000 |
| 20155 | 12 | $98,000 |
| 22172 | 10 | $73,000 |
| 20136 | 10 | $6,946 |
| 20110 | 9 | $39,000 |
| 20181 | 5 | $158,000 |
Flood events since 1996
- Flood186
- Flash Flood88
- Heavy Rain15
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026. NOAA Storm Events through 2026.
River crests
Most severe crest
August 13, 2020
South Fork Quantico Creek near Independent Hill, 12.04 ft
3.04 feet above the 9.0 ft flood stage; moderate flooding by today’s categories.
Most recent moderate or major crest
August 13, 2020
South Fork Quantico Creek near Independent Hill, 12.04 ft
Moderate flooding.
River gauges
| Broad Run at Nokesville Road (VA-28) | 11.0 | — | 0 |
| Broad Run near Bristow | 9.5 | 14.89 ft | 0 |
| Cedar Run near Aden | 10.0 | 13.51 ft | 0 |
| Kettle Run at Bristow Manor GC | 6.5 | 8.15 ft | 0 |
| Little Bull Run at Artemus Road | 4.5 | 7.88 ft | 0 |
| Little Creek at US-1 | 10.5 | — | 0 |
| Potomac River at Leesylvania State Park | 5.0 | — | 0 |
| Purcell Branch at Purcell Road | 6.5 | — | 0 |
| South Fork Quantico Creek near Independent Hill | 9.0 | 12.04 ft | 0 |
| Youngs Branch at Manassas Battlefield | 7.1 | — | 0 |
- Crests are the highest and the recent crests the National Weather Service lists for each river gauge in the county that has a flood stage, not every flood. Flood categories use each gauge's current flood stages; crests from before levees, dams or channel changes may not be comparable. Crests measured on an old datum are left out of the rankings.
NOAA National Water Prediction Service gauge records, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Drought
In severe drought or worse for 142 of 1,581 months since 1895 (9%); the longest spell lasted 28 months.
142
Months in severe drought or worse since 1895
54
Months in extreme drought
9%
Share of all months, severe or worse
11
Drought reports to the Weather Service since 1996
Lowest reading
February 1931
−6.96, extreme drought
Longest severe spell
28 months
June 2024 to September 2026.
Latest month
September 2026
−3.47, severe drought
- The Palmer Drought Severity Index is computed by NOAA each month from the county's average temperature and precipitation, relative to the county's own climate. Zero is normal; -3 or lower is severe drought and -4 or lower extreme drought. It describes the long-term balance of moisture, not water supply or crop losses.
NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1895 to September 2026, issued October 6, 2026.
Earthquakes and landslides
4 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles since 1900; the largest was magnitude 5.8 in 2011.
0
Magnitude 2.5+ inside the county since 1973
9
Magnitude 3+ within 50 miles since 1973
4
Magnitude 4+ within 50 miles since 1900
1
Magnitude 5+ within 50 miles since 1900
Largest within 50 miles
August 23, 2011
11 km SSW of Mineral, Virginia; 49.8 miles away, 3.7 miles deep.
Most recent, magnitude 3 or more
January 17, 2016
Magnitude 3.0
3 km NE of Ranson, West Virginia; 27.6 miles away.
Every earthquake of magnitude 4 or more within 50 miles
| Aug 25, 2011 | 4.5 | 48.3 |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 4.2 | 49.9 |
| Aug 23, 2011 | 5.8 | 49.8 |
| Apr 9, 1918 | 4.6 | 38.2 |
- Earthquakes of magnitude 2.5 or more in the USGS Comprehensive Catalog since 1900. Within 50 miles means the epicentre lies within 50 miles of the county boundary (or inside the county).
- Small earthquakes were under-recorded before the modern seismic networks of the 1970s and are still missed in remote areas, so early decades read low. Magnitudes are as the catalogue reports them and mix scales (moment, local and body-wave).
USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog, 1900 to present, retrieved October 30, 2026.
Mapped landslides
1
Landslides mapped, probable or better
1
With a recorded date
1
Source inventory
Mapped by NASA (1).
- Landslides mapped in the USGS compilation of landslide inventories across the United States (version 3.0, 2025), rated probable or better. The compilation joins inventories made by federal and state agencies for different purposes and areas, so the number mapped in a county reflects how closely it has been surveyed as much as how often its slopes fail. An area with few records may simply not have been mapped. Deaths are as recorded in the inventories; a slide listed in two inventories is counted once.
USGS Landslide Inventories across the United States, version 3.0, retrieved October 27, 2026.
Severe weather and other events
1,122 events in the National Weather Service record, 1,072 of them since 1996.
67
Hail reports, 1 inch or larger
3
Hail, 2 inches or larger
283
Damaging gusts, 58 mph+
147
Winter weather events since 1996
59
Heat events since 1996
48
Cold events since 1996
Largest hail
May 2, 2016
2.25 inches
Strongest measured or estimated gust
August 4, 1983
90 mph
More event types since 1996
| Storm surge and tide | 2 | 0 |
| Lightning | 8 | 0 |
| Dust storms and dust devils | 1 | 0 |
| Dense fog and smoke | 78 | 0 |
Costliest events since 1996
- Jul 29, 2023Thunderstorm Wind$3.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Dozens of large trees, branches and wires blew down just outside the City of Manassas Park, including many onto cars and houses. Numerous trees and large tree limbs blew down in the 7500 block of Allegheny Road.
- Aug 3, 2002Thunderstorm Wind$1.5 million
National Weather Service narrative
A wind gust of 67 MPH damaged planes and buildings at the airport.
- Apr 23, 1999Hail$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
A line of thunderstorms developed in West Virginia during the early afternoon and moved rapidly southeast across Northern Virginia. These storms produced very large hail in a 10 mile wide strip from Winchester in Frederick County to Woodbridge in Prince William County from 3:30 PM EDT to 5:00 PM EDT. Winds over 55 MPH also downed trees and power lines in Frederick and Clarke County between 3:30 PM EDT and 4:15 PM EDT. Frederick County spotters reported between 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 inch diameter hail. The rubber membrane roof of the War Memorial Building in Winchester was punctured by hail the size of golf balls, allowing heavy rain to fall inside the structure and cause significant…
- Sep 17, 2004Tornado$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
A tornadic thunderstorm moved through central Prince William County. This is the same storm that produced damage earlier in Stafford County. The initial touchdown in Prince William County was west of Dale City, near Independent Hill and Dumfries Road. The storm snapped or uprooted many large hardwood trees. Some of the trees fell on houses and other structures. The storm lifted and then reformed for the second touchdown in Manassas. Several homes suffered roof and shingle damage. An automobile was moved several feet. Damaged also occurred in Manassas Park and in Yorkshire Village. This tornado continued north into Fairfax County.
- Jul 29, 2023Thunderstorm Wind$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Dozens of large trees, branches, and wires blew down near Independent Hill, Woodbine, Canova, and Riverview Estates, including some onto cars and houses. Numerous trees blew down on northbound VA-234 Dumfries Road in the vicinity of VA-695 Sinclair Mill Road.
- May 16, 2022Thunderstorm Wind$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
Dozens of trees, wires, and branches blew down in Lake Ridge, including about ten trees that fell onto houses. A tree blew down onto a house in the 12000 block of Mulberry Court, crushing the garage. A tree blew down onto a house in the 2000 block of Pembroke Court. Eight to ten large trees were uprooted near the intersection of Springwoods Drive and Old Bridge Road.
- Apr 23, 1999Hail$1.0 million
National Weather Service narrative
A line of thunderstorms developed in West Virginia during the early afternoon and moved rapidly southeast across Northern Virginia. These storms produced very large hail in a 10 mile wide strip from Winchester in Frederick County to Woodbridge in Prince William County from 3:30 PM EDT to 5:00 PM EDT. Winds over 55 MPH also downed trees and power lines in Frederick and Clarke County between 3:30 PM EDT and 4:15 PM EDT. Frederick County spotters reported between 1 3/4 to 3 1/2 inch diameter hail. The rubber membrane roof of the War Memorial Building in Winchester was punctured by hail the size of golf balls, allowing heavy rain to fall inside the structure and cause significant…
- Sep 6, 1996Storm Surge/Tide$500,000
- Jul 29, 2023Thunderstorm Wind$250,000
National Weather Service narrative
Trees blew down around Montclair, including one onto a residence in the 15000 block of Holly Hill Drive killing the resident inside.
- Jun 9, 2018Flood$200,000
National Weather Service narrative
The combination of a clogged drain and heavy rainfall caused a retention pond to overflow at the Jiffy Lube Live concert venue during a concert. Overland flow flooded a portion of Wellington Road near the venue, and rising standing water flooded several dozen vehicles parked on the grounds.
- Storm Events records before 1996 cover only tornadoes, thunderstorm wind and hail. Damage figures are as reported by the National Weather Service at the time, not adjusted for inflation.
NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, 1950 to 2026, issued October 26, 2026.
Weather records
From Washington Dulles International Airport, 16.9 miles from the county’s population centre, with records from 1960.
- All-time high
- 105°FJul 22, 2011
- All-time low
- −18°FJan 22, 1984
- Warmest night
- 81°FJul 16, 2026
- Coldest day
- 6°FJan 19, 1994
- Wettest day
- 10.67 inJun 21, 1972
- Snowiest day
- 22.5 inFeb 11, 1983
- Hottest year
- 2024mean 58.9°F
- Coldest year
- 1976mean 51.9°F
- Wettest year
- 201866.74 in
- Driest year
- 200727.02 in
- Snowiest season
- 73.2 in2009-10
Median first snow
December 10
Earliest: October 10, 1979
Median last snow
March 14
Latest: April 12, 1973
0 of 63 winters had no measurable snow.
Station Washington Dulles International Airport (USW00093738), 294 ft elevation, 16.9 miles from the population centre. Daily records from 1960 to October 26, 2026; 100.0% of days in the last 30 years are complete. Records at a single station can differ from a city’s official threaded record, which may combine several stations.
NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily.
Federal disaster declarations
20 since 1953. The most recent: Severe Winter Storm, January 23, 2026.
| Jan 23, 2026 | Winter Storm | EM-3631-VA |
| Apr 2, 2020 | Biological | DR-4512-VA |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Biological | EM-3448-VA |
| Sep 11, 2018 | Hurricane | EM-3403-VA |
| Mar 7, 2016 | Snowstorm | DR-4262-VA |
| Nov 26, 2012 | Hurricane | DR-4092-VA |
| Oct 29, 2012 | Hurricane | EM-3359-VA |
| Nov 17, 2011 | Severe Storm | DR-4045-VA |
| Apr 27, 2010 | Snowstorm | DR-1905-VA |
| Feb 16, 2010 | Snowstorm | DR-1874-VA |
| Sep 12, 2005 | Hurricane | EM-3240-VA |
| Sep 18, 2003 | Hurricane | DR-1491-VA |
| Mar 27, 2003 | Severe Storm | DR-1458-VA |
| Feb 28, 2000 | Severe Storm | DR-1318-VA |
| Sep 6, 1996 | Hurricane | DR-1135-VA |
| Jan 13, 1996 | Snowstorm | DR-1086-VA |
| Mar 25, 1993 | Snowstorm | EM-3112-VA |
| Jul 23, 1977 | Drought | EM-3046-VA |
| Jan 26, 1977 | Freezing | DR-525-VA |
| Jun 23, 1972 | Flood | DR-339-VA |
This product uses the Federal Emergency Management Agency's OpenFEMA API, but is not endorsed by FEMA. The Federal Government or FEMA cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from the Agency's website(s).
OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries, retrieved October 30, 2026. Statewide declarations are not listed.
How this compares
Where Prince William County stands among 133 counties in Virginia and 3,143 in the United States.
| Tornadoes since 1950 | 14 | 16 / 133 |
| Tornadoes rated F3/EF3 or stronger | 1 | 12 / 133 |
| Tropical cyclones within 50 mi | 16 | 56 / 133 |
| Hurricane-strength passes within 50 mi | 2 | 35 / 133 |
| Wildfire acres since 1984 | 816 | 31 / 133 |
| Flood insurance claims | 485 | 17 / 133 |
| Flood insurance paid | $5.8 million | 26 / 133 |
| Disaster declarations | 20 | 69 / 133 |
| Flood events since 1996 | 289 | 2 / 133 |
| Hail and wind events since 1996 | 419 | 12 / 133 |
| Winter storm events since 1996 | 147 | 23 / 133 |
| Reported damage since 1996 | $13.2 million | 51 / 133 |
| River crests at major flood stage | 0 | — |
| High tide flooding days a year, last 10 years | 0.0 | — |
| Months in severe drought since 1895 | 142 | 2 / 133 |
| Medium or heavy smoke days a year, last 10 years | 11.9 | 23 / 133 |
| Earthquakes M4+ within 50 mi since 1900 | 4 | 44 / 133 |
| Earthquakes M2.5+ in the county since 1973 | 0 | — |
Neighbouring counties
| Fairfax County | 22 | 14 |
| Fauquier County | 28 | 15 |
| Loudoun County | 30 | 14 |
| Manassas Park city | 0 | 12 |
| Manassas city | 1 | 12 |
| Stafford County | 18 | 16 |
Sources and vintage
Every number on this page comes from these public records.
- Tornadoes NOAA Storm Prediction Center severe weather database, through 2025.
- Tropical cyclones NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 (Atlantic; Northeast and Central Pacific), through 2025.
- Wildfire USGS/USFS Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity, through 2026.
- Storm events NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, through 2026.
- Flood insurance OpenFEMA NFIP Redacted Claims v3, refreshed August 4, 2026.
- Declarations OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries v2, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Weather records NOAA NCEI Global Historical Climatology Network Daily, station USW00093738.
- River crests NOAA National Weather Service, National Water Prediction Service river gauges, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Drought NOAA NCEI nClimDiv county Palmer Drought Severity Index, through September 2026.
- Smoke NOAA NESDIS Hazard Mapping System smoke analysis, retrieved October 30, 2026.
- Landslides USGS Landslide Inventories across the United States, version 3.0 (2025).
- Earthquakes USGS ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), retrieved October 30, 2026.
Joins, thresholds and known limits are set out in the methodology. Found an error? Report it. Page built October 30, 2026.